New polls of Alaska and Iowa reveal that the Democratic candidates in each state are in a position to win two critical Senate races tomorrow.
The DSCC’s Justin Barasky told PoliticusUSA that Democrats feel like they are in position to keep their Senate majority, “Everything we’re seeing shows a tremendous amount of enthusiasm for voting and for voting for Democrats. We’re confident that we are competitive in enough races to hold the majority.”
Democratic confidence should be boosted by two new Senate polls in Iowa and Alaska.
PPP sums up their poll of Alaska, “The Alaska Senate race is even tighter than the one in Colorado, with Dan Sullivan leading Mark Begich just 46/45 with the full field and 47/46 in a head to head contest. Begich leads 50/36 with independents and has 91% of the Democratic vote behind him to just 81% of Republicans who are for Sullivan….Begich has a very strong ground game and it could be enough to put him over the top.”
In Iowa, The Des Moines Register poll that showed Republican Joni Ernst up by seven points is looking like an outlier. A new Quinnipiac poll reveals that Democrat Bruce Braley has erased Joni Ernst’s four point lead over the past week.
U.S. Rep. Bruce Braley closes the gap with Republican State Sen. Joni Ernst, leaving the Iowa U.S. Senate race a 47 – 47 percent dead heat, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Four percent remain undecided.
This compares to results of an October 29 survey by the independent Quinnipiac University, showing Sen. Ernst at 49 percent and Rep. Braley at 45 percent. Today’s results show independent voters divided 44 – 44 percent. Republicans back Ernst 95 – 2 percent. Democrats back Braley 94 – 5 percent. Men and women still are locked in a reverse gender gap as women back the Democratic man 51 – 42 percent, while men back the Republican woman 52 – 44 percent.
Braley leads 56 – 36 percent among those who already have voted.
Despite the mainstream press’s decision that Republicans have already won, this election remains close. If Democrats win in Iowa and Alaska, the so called Republican wave will be non-existent. If Democrats add a win in Colorado or the Independent wins in Kansas, Republican will have to flip Arkansas and win both likely runoff elections in Louisiana and Georgia to obtain a 51-49 Senate majority. A slim Republican Senate majority will likely be flipped in 2016, when there are at least six endangered Republicans who will be defending their seats in blue states.
The media have a tendency to treat as polls as equal, and call elections over based on suspect polling. The 2014 election is far from over. It’s not over yet. Democrats aren’t done, and in states where the races are tied, the Democratic ground game will be put to the test.
In other words, Republicans and the media could be in for a big surprise if voters do what Democrats are expecting them to do.
Mr. Easley is the founder/managing editor and Senior White House and Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association