Pew Research dug deep into the long term trends on party affiliation and found that more demographic groups lean Democratic than Republican, and more Americans lean towards supporting Democrats.
Pew found that Republicans are just who they are often thought to be. Mormons (+48) and Evangelical Christians (+46) were the heaviest skewing Republican groups followed by white Southerns (+21), white men with some or no college education (+21), white voters (+9), and voters age 69-86 (+4).
The demographic groups that tilt Democratic include Blacks (+69), Asians (+42), religiously unaffiliated (+36), postgraduate women (+35), Jewish (+30), Hispanics (+30), millennials (+16).
According to Pew, more Americans lean Democratic than Republican:
ost of those who identify as independents lean toward a party. And in many respects, partisan leaners have attitudes that are similar to those of partisans – they just prefer not to identify with a party. (See this appendix to our 2014 polarization report for an explainer on partisan “leaners.”)
The balance of leaned partisan affiliation has changed little in recent years: 48% identify with the Democratic Party or lean Democratic, while 39% identify as Republicans or lean toward the GOP. Democrats have led in leaned party identification among the public for most of the past two decades.
One of the reasons why Republicans have lost five of the last six popular votes in presidential elections is that more Americans lean towards supporting the Democratic Party. The media and Republicans like to perpetuate the myth that America is a conservative nation, but the reality is that America is a lot more liberal than conservatives care to admit.
Pew examined data from 1992-2014, and the result confirms that the Democratic Party is more diverse than the GOP. The key demographics for Republicans are centered around evangelicals, Mormons, whites, Southerners, men, and older Americans. This group is more likely to care about beliefs and social issues over economics and pocketbook politics.
With Democrats emphasizing middle-class economics and populist ideas, it is not surprising that they hold a built-in advantage with much of the national electorate. One of the byproducts of the Republican overseen Great Recession is that the country has moved left. Voters oppose the Republican agenda of trickle-down economics and tax cuts for the wealthy.
America is moving left, and if Republicans don’t come with it, they are going to a regional party that gets left behind.
Mr. Easley is the managing editor. He is also a White House Press Pool and a Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association