Bluegrass Poll Reveals Kentucky Would Be A Tossup Between Hillary And Rand Paul


The latest Bluegrass Poll, conducted by SurveyUSA, of 2,104 registered Kentucky voters finds that the presidential race would be a tossup between Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Kentucky Senator Rand Paul. In a head to head match-up, each command the loyalty of 45 percent of Kentucky voters. The poll, conducted between May 5th and May 10th, shows that Hillary Clinton is remarkably competitive in Kentucky.

Clinton’s strength in the Bluegrass state contrasts sharply with President Obama’s poor performance in the state. In 2012, Obama lost Kentucky badly to Mitt Romney. Romney defeated Obama by a 60-38 percent margin.  Kentucky has not been a competitive state in a presidential election since 1996 when Bill Clinton narrowly carried the state 46-45. In the 21st century, Republicans have carried Kentucky by double digits in four consecutive elections.

Hillary Clinton, however, appears to have the potential to put Kentucky back into play, as she manages a tie with Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, the most popular Republican presidential candidate in the state. Clinton’s working-class appeal plays well in the state, and she is competitive in every portion of the state except Western Kentucky.

Although Rand Paul is often portrayed by the media as appealing to young voters, Clinton leads Senator Paul among Kentucky voters under the age of 35, by a substantial 50-34 percent margin. Rand Paul has the edge with Kentucky Seniors by a smaller 50-44 spread.

The same poll found that Kentucky prefers a Democratic governor to a Republican. Democrat Jack Conway leads the three Republican candidates for governor by margins ranging from 6 to 12 percentage points.

Hillary Clinton’s broad appeal makes her a difficult candidate for Republicans to defeat. She not only runs strong in traditional swing states like Ohio and Florida, but she has the potential to bring additional states into play, like Arizona, Georgia, and Kentucky, that are usually regarded as safe red states.


Image via WFPL

34 Replies to “Bluegrass Poll Reveals Kentucky Would Be A Tossup Between Hillary And Rand Paul”

  1. 16 months away, folks. Hillary will have to campaign sometime (I think) and then we’ll see, won’t we?

  2. The republicans could nominate corpse, and this teabilly state would vote for it, as long as it had R beside its name.

  3. She drew huge crowds when she was campaigning for Grimes last fall. A lot of people here think she could make Kentucky swing her way. Rand Paul is afraid of of her, thats why he’s been stirring the Benghazi pot for several years. What an embarrassment if he wins the nomination (not), and then has a poor showing against HC in his home state. He doesn’t need to sweat it though, he’s not going anywhere. Kentucky’s stuck with him.

  4. Hillary is already campaigning, and doing very well, in spite of the media whining that she’s not going through them, but directly to the people. Telling that she’s doing well, even in Kentucky, against Rand Paul. True, the election is well over a year away, and much can happen between now and then. So far, however, the gop candidates have stumbled out the gate, and haven’t recovered, but Hilary is running very well indeed.

  5. And didn’t he have some strings pulled so he could run for both Senate and President? Kind of like his Dr accreditation. And plagiarism.

  6. Interesting Trend; it’s almost as if even some of the Reddest of States is getting damned tired of Republicans and their childishness.

  7. Kentucky is hers. I have no doubt. She got half a million votes there in the primary last time around. Rand Paul will not be running against her in the general.

    He will self destruct. They are discussing limiting the debates to 9 -12 so that they fit on the stage. The others will be gone in no time flat. He will make that cut, but then get eaten alive by Jebbie, Walker and Rubio – the only seriously likely candidates to remain somewhat viable.,_2008

  8. The pitiful Republican Lilliputian candidates tugging on the great ladies skirt tails, what an embarrassing sight. If the Republicans get anymore minie me candidates they are going to have to trade their clown car for a clown bus.

  9. Exactly. She took her own power back from them. These little newbie reporters who will twist her words and slant things so they are sexy rather than wonky. She is just not going to let them sex it up and make it headline hot non-story crap.

    She has business to do and as a workhorse, you can bet she is up nights being serious on issues and working on her smart platform, smart power, smart plans, smart campaign strategies… not the crap they want to hear.

    She will be swamped by attention when she deems to open her mouth – but she will make sure it is on what she wants to talk about – and that will not be crapola they want.

  10. Question about this site: is anyone else having issues with access or posting?

    Last night I got warnings about “no certificate” from Mozilla and IE and when I did hit the main page it was not formatted.

    Now I am getting “submitting” and it does not go through on that link but if I open a new window for the site my message posted.

    Something is bonkers, either with my computer on this site or with the site itself.

  11. He’s still working on it. Wants to change the primary to a caucus so he won’t be on the ballot twice. The Kentucky house wouldn’t allow changes to be made to accommodate him, so this will be his way around the law. Kentucky’s primary is late (May), he’ll be out by then anyway. Too thin skinned.

  12. Strictly subjective and anecdotal, but two years ago I had a discussion with a self proclaimed Tea Bagger while my car was being serviced in a Northern Kentucky dealership. He said he would vote for Hilary in a general election though didn’t say why. This poll does not surprise me, and I think Hilary could do well in Kentucky, though I’m not sure I understand why. I would love to see her take the state.

  13. They chose Bill and he wasn’t running against a black guy if I recall…

    It is among the states, many of them, that used to be called

    Clinton Country.

    They loved them some Bill.

  14. I cannot believe the pollsters are polling about an election that won’t take place for 1 1/2 years!! Bill won KY when he ran for President, which should help Hilary.

    On the other hand, any poll that has Rand Paul not able to defeat Hilary is bad news for him, good news for Hilary

  15. They have to poll. They have to narrow down who makes it to the debate stage on their side. The lower the numbers the more marginalized. Also the donors want to see some results before they turn over bucks.

    The thing is they can tell early because it is yes, no or unsure. They also, often recently, put a fake question in there, a candidate who doesn’t exist, so they know if people are just partisan or lying.

    If 50% aren’t sure then it can change, but if only 5% aren’t sure it isn’t going to change by next year – provided there isn’t a major event.

  16. It’s early, but every bit of good news makes me happier. By election day I may be walking on a cloud happy!

    Still, to be serious, winning Kentucky will take some work as McConnell wouldn’t like it. But, if Dems win it will be a very big victory.

  17. Insulting the entire state of Kentucky and the people is just vile! I live in kentucky and I’m extremely liberal and never voted for a republican and never will!!!! And you’re wrong, the state voted for Bill Clinton twice and our current governor is Democrat!!! Larry, It’s people like you that ruin our party. Vile and disgusting!!!

  18. Get down off that high horse before you fall off and hurt yourself. The entire world is aware that Kentucky is home to Ken Ham’s Creation Museum and Ark Park, that Kentucky ranks #4 on the list of America’s Top Ten “Dumbest States”… and no wonder:

    If it makes you feel any better, I’m a liberal and happen to live in my state’s dumbest city… I’ll be the first one to admit it:) You can’t fault people for pointing out realities.

  19. I live in Kentucky also but I agree with Larry. Kentucky is fast becoming Texas north. Unless you live in Louisville or Lexington, liberals are becoming extinct. What you’ve stated is true, but that was then. You can’t watch tv without hearing a campaign comercial (republican), about how their a better christian than the other guy. Then there’s the true embarrassment to the state, the newest theme park, Six Flags Over Jesus Ark Encounter! Pull your head out of the sand. You may be among the few sane people left in our state!

  20. They get a real kick out of “screwing with the libtards” every 4 years. Divide and Conquer is the oldest trick in the book.

    They don’t laugh when we head to the polls and they lose. And they will lose.

    We are not taking no for an answer.

    We will be united.

  21. I have never heard of the bluegrass poll. Check out the real clear politics of polls. No one believes that Clinton can beat Rand Paul in his home state. Actually polls mean very little this early. If he were the nominee I would be surprised if he didn’t carry the state by at least 25 points.also Clinton would carry NY or mass by at least 25 points.

  22. Ladies and gentlemen we’re on the verge of a landslide Democratic national election. The stock market is at all time highs, and by November 2016 the unemployment rate could be in the mid 4% range(full employment) under a Democratic president.

    Why on earth would we vote for a conservative austere president under such scenarios?

  23. UNLESS They Steal It Again. Let us all be prepared this time!

    Last time we did not protest.
    We just sat there saying…WHAT?

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