Time To Stop Treating Jeb Bush As A Serious Candidate As He Dips to 7 Percent In Iowa Poll

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A Monmouth Poll released on Monday July 20, 2015, finds former Florida Governor Jeb Bush is polling just 7 percent with likely Iowa Republican caucus voters. At 7 percent support, Bush is in a distant fourth place, tied with Texas Senator Ted Cruz. Bush trails Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker (22 percent), wealthy businessman Donald Trump (13 percent) and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson (8 percent).

While Bush’s fourth place standing should be concerning enough for his campaign, it may understate how much trouble the former Florida Governor faces ahead in Iowa. Of the 17 Republican candidates polled, Bush is one of only 5 who are viewed unfavorably by Iowa Republicans.

The other GOP candidates who Iowa Republicans dislike are former New York Governor George Pataki, former Virginia Governor Jim Gilmore, South Carolina Governor Lindsey Graham, and New Jersey Governor Chris Christie. With the possible exception of Chris Christie, none of those individuals are viewed by the media as having any chance whatsoever of winning the Republican nomination, much less a general election.

Just 6 percent of Iowa GOP caucus voters rate Bush as their second choice, meaning that even if one of the current leaders fades, Bush is unlikely to be the candidate who benefits. Iowa Republicans are more likely to support Ted Cruz, Florida Senator Marco Rubio or even Lousiana Governor Bobby Jindal as their back up choice, before they would be willing to back Jeb Bush.

Bush’s national standing with Republican voters is not quite as dismal as his position is with Iowa Republicans. Nationally, Bush has a lukewarm 50 percent favorable to 30 percent unfavorable rating with GOP voters. In Iowa, he is underwater with just 40 percent of Republicans rating him favorably to 42 percent who view him negatively.

Nevertheless, if Bush flounders out of the gate and finishes outside the top three candidates in Iowa, his already flimsy support nationally may evaporate further. Ambivalent Bush supporters will undoubtedly jump onto the bandwagons of other candidates who have more momentum and who speak passionately on the issues that mobilize conservatives.

The media has long treated Jeb Bush like the implicit front-runner in the Republican race, or at the very least, they have lumped him in with the top two or three “serious candidates.” However, as Jeb Bush continues to hemorrhage support in Iowa, it may be time to re-evaluate the tendency to view Bush as a serious candidate. Based on the polling numbers in Iowa, Jeb Bush is looking more and more like a fringe candidate whose family name can’t save him from sinking into irrelevancy.

42 Replies to “Time To Stop Treating Jeb Bush As A Serious Candidate As He Dips to 7 Percent In Iowa Poll”

  1. I’m telling you, Romney is going to bide his time, hoard his cash, and jump in next winter. He’s going to let these creepy, lying awful men destroy each other, and then he’s come riding in on Queen Ann’s show pony to “save the country from Hillary!!” He can stay out of the Iran fray, the immigrant issues, and everything else, and just appear on Fox once a month to pontificate on the rest of them. Eventually the GOP is going to realize that the GOP Governors are hated in their states, and the members of Congress are no better. Voila…who better to save the party than the guy who started state health care, who never had to vote us into a war, and who can spend the next six months getting his tax returns all prettied up to finally release. Who knows, maybe the picture with the grandkids will actually spell “ROMNEY” this time.

  2. Yes, the winner there is just the person who can sell the most tickets and buy the most votes for the day. Didn’t Crazy Eyes win that?

  3. You might be right but the crazies will never accept him. Fool me once shame on me Fool me twice shame on ahh hold on while I look it up

  4. isn’t River City in Iowa?

    wasn’t the challenge for Harold Hill to run the con on the stubborn rubes?

    who is Harold Hill in this Republican run up…

    we got trouble
    right here
    right here in River City

  5. And the huckster won the Iowa republican caucus in 2008. Seems the Iowa caucus isn’t the best indicator of winning republican candidates.

  6. A lot of websites have picked up on the letter Bush sent to the people who tried to destroy John Kerry, and are showing the letter.

  7. Lets say he do. The next question out of any reporters mouth should be our allies will honor it so what is your plan real man of genius?

  8. Well since we are talking about the campaign here is some news from the other democratic candidate.

    Hillary Clinton shuts down Mitch McConnell on women’s rights: He “doesn’t understand what our lives are like”

    The Senate Majority Leader has already resorted to sexist attacks to dismiss Clinton’s candidacy
    http://www.salon.com/2015/07/20/hillary_clinton_shuts_down_mitch_mcconnell_on_womens_rights_he_doesnt_understand_what_our_lives_are_like/

  9. ROMNEY? Interesting Idea.
    But the GOP is now way to HATEFUL to ever elect ROMNEY…They want BLOOD!

    The GOP-Voters want a REAL BULLY!

  10. Nationally Bush will win and that has been clear for a very long time. He is always in the top three nationally. Trump will nose dive. Iowa has been for Walker all along. So?

    The other poll, the national Dem one today… is new poll same old story.

    My girl +50% nationally and she jumps from 63% to 68% when they remove Biden from the list. Static flat line all along with slight wobbling but no long term changes at all. From Washington Post/ABC:

    http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1170a22016Politics.pdf

    As for that other thread here about Texas – Hillary had 1,500,000 votes in Texas in 08.

    Talk about crowds!

    :-)

    And Hi, DJ! Salon wrote something positive about Hillary? *marks my calendar*

  11. The Weekly Standard reports that Bush said this to a voter in Nevada:

    “One thing that I won’t do is just say, as a candidate, ‘I’m going to tear up the agreement on the first day.’ That’s great, that sounds great but maybe you ought to check in with your allies first, maybe you ought to appoint a secretary of state, maybe secretary of defense, you might want to have your team in place, before you take an act like that.”

    That was a shot at [Scott] Walker, who has said he would undo an Iran deal on Day One of his presidency, regardless of what our allies have to say about it. Bush subsequently stood by his remarks, noting that on Day One, he would not yet have had the intelligence briefings required to make an informed decision. Bush added: “If you’re running for president, you know, I think it’s important to be mature and thoughtful about this.”
    Read More
    http://digbysblog.blogspot.com/2015/07/scott-walker-reckless-teenager.html

  12. People have been calling her a nerd and a wonk since she was a teenager. She always does her homework and always has the best advisors (who are friends as well as national experts)to give her their approval or add other ideas and stats to her plans. This was a long researched and multifaceted plan, as all her platform initiatives are.

    She talked today on her facebook Q & A about the short-termism too: “Later this week, I will be outlining a number of proposals, including capital gains reform, to promote long term investment that will strengthen companies, workers, and communities. Both business leaders and labor leaders have been speaking out about this in recent years. The increase in short-termism has grown in urgency since 2008, and the urgency of our solutions has to match it. -H”

    Vox covers it too: http://www.vox.com/2015/7/20/9005911/hillary-clintons-capital-gains-quarterly-capitalism

    Her “taking away executive bonuses when companies break rules” also on Vox.

  13. You all should read the article on Huffington Post. re Walker and Bush going back and forthe on who would go to war the fastest, day or day 2 of when they take the White House. There’s already about 1250 comments and it is a riot, very very funny!

  14. This is the problem you call him dull. His brother was elected on who you want to have a beer with. Policy my friend. Leave the personality to the village we should be talking policy

  15. Wait ’til the Koch Bros. discover that American business is shut out of Iran because the President “blew up ” the agreement. Wait ’til the Koch Bros. discover that the President of the United States word on agreements is now not reliable, and bunches of other agreements are in question. Somehow I think their “good little puppet” will change his tune.

  16. You’re jumping the gun. He first has to ‘sell’ to the lunatics in the Republican primaries, and they demand red meat and vitriole.

    If Jebbeh can’t make that hurdle, he can’t be dull in the general.

  17. El-Jebe,
    To bad, so sad that your Brother really soiled the Bush name. The third time won’t be a charm, America has a good idea what another Bush presidency would be like….4 years of hemroids, where there is not enough fiber in all of America for 350 million people to reduce the discomfort.

  18. Joan, you’re right. I’ve seen that letter from Bush to the head “Swiftboater” on several different sites the last couple of days.

    Do these guys not realize that in today’s internet age, their writings and spoken words are frozen in time to be used against them later? What they did to John Kerry was appalling and evil — and now they have the gall to stand up and rant about what Trump said about McCain?

    Hypocrisy, thy party is Republican.

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