Trump Edges Bush, Crushes Rubio With Florida Republican Voters

A Florida Times-Union poll released on Saturday, August 8th, has Donald Trump leading the GOP field, with 27 percent support to 26 percent for former Florida Governor Jeb Bush. Trump’s slim lead means that the race is a virtual dead heat between Trump and Bush.

The rest of the field lags far behind, with no other candidate polling better than 8 percent. Florida Senator Marco Rubio sits way back at 7 percent support.

The poll of 547 likely Republican primary voters was conducted by telephone on August 3rd, prior to Thursday night’s debate. As such, any positive or negative momentum any candidate gleaned from the debate will not be reflected in the results.

Trump’s strong numbers in Florida underscore his appeal with GOP voters. The Sunshine State is home to both Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio, yet neither of those candidates has been able to parlay their home state advantage into a lead over Donald Trump on their own turf.

Rubio’s anemic poll numbers in Florida suggest that home state voters are wary about supporting him for president. While Bush fares better than Rubio, he too is unable to shake off Donald Trump on his home territory.

Florida is a delegate rich state that both Bush and Rubio have to view as a must win state for their respective campaigns. If either candidate falters in his home state, it could mark the end of their presidential hopes. Furthermore, the state is a pivotal general election battleground state. Republican strategists know that the GOP has little chance of winning the White House if they can’t nail down Florida.

Given Florida’s critical significance, a home state candidate cannot appear to look weak in the primary, for that will not bode well for their general election chances. Florida voters know Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio better than anybody else, and yet Republican voters in the state would rather cast their lot with Donald Trump. That speaks volumes.

38 Replies to “Trump Edges Bush, Crushes Rubio With Florida Republican Voters”

  1. The fact that Trump is still polling so well says far more about the standards and character of the GOP electorate than it does about the qualifications of this bombastic, bellicose blowhard to be elected POTUS.

  2. Jeb Bush came off like he wanted to run and hide on the debate stage. He was completely unprepared for the questions and basically answered things in a boring, listless, robotic, fashion.

    It is a small wonder that he keeps making gaffes on the campaign trail left and right? He has no feel for the immediate political environment and his answers show just how out of touch he is with the rest of the electorate.

  3. The Donald is polling well for now. Lots of time for Bush’s brain to kick in. You don’t need all news sources to change the outcome.

  4. Trump splits the GOP when he’s drafted to run as an independent. Hillary walks into the White House. You heard it here first.

  5. “They call me Jeb in Florida. I EARNED that name!”

    That was my drink-spit moment right there. He “earned” the name JEB? His initials? So, what, in his mind because people call him by his initials, that’s some sort of mark of honor?

    Jeb showed that he is not only totally in the wrong weight class, he’s not even home upstairs. There’s nothing going on up there. He’s delusional to believe that America wants another Bush in the White House.

  6. Based on his comment, I say we all need to start calling him John. If he wears JEB as some sort of badge of honor, or as some bizarre accomplishment, then I’ll never say it again.

    Please proceed, John Bush.

  7. And by Bush will win Florida – I am still talking strictly about the Primary there – so among Republicans only.

    As for the General. My girl is going to give it her all here. I am already fighting for every bit of ground we can claim. I am in a Red Cong District and want it to go Blue.

    That is our goal. We have 22,000 Hillary volunteer in the state approx now and will have estimated 50,000 in two months from now.

    And if each bring in one person – we have 100,000 in no time, etc. A blue DEM PARTY win in the General for this often election day drama filled state. I will straighten out their sorry asses!

  8. ru-ru-rubio can’t even carry his own state
    Trump beats bush [fla is bush’s state too].
    Makes one wonder just what type of people floridians elect to represent themselves

  9. The fact that Trump is still polling so well says far more about the standards and character of the GOP electorate than it does about the qualifications of this self-absorbed, misogynistic gascon to be elected POTUS.

    Trump’s strength is also his weakness — without the bombastic, bellicose bravado and insult-laden diatribes about his critics, Trump’s support base would scratch their heads and wonder why they found him to be appealing.

  10. Whether republicans are united or divided, with or without trump, they don’t stand a chance of winning a national election.

    I agree on your points.
    But let me add my 2 cents: Bush will win the nomination (The inevitable, more palatable candidate among the weird ones)… But look for Trump to see THAT writing on the wall and strike a DEALwith the Party bosses (RNC) to NOT run as a Third Party candidate; IF he is promised a cabinet position, IF Bush were to win the White House; namely: Secretary of State, so he can go bully every nation in the world, and in so doing influence their commercial activity to HIS liking (see China , Mexico, etc.)Remember, it is contingent on the backroom deal Trump negotiates with these people. Remember, he is the Master Negotiator. Heh, heh.

  12. Any poll taken before the debate is quite likely meaningless. I would expect Trump’s numbers to be cut in half and divided between three or four other candidates.

  13. This poll was taken before the furor he ignited. Check back in a few days. And at one point before the 2008 election Guiliani was running away with it.

    It happens.

  14. And don’t forget to allot some of your political firepower to pressuring the Justice Department in case they file criminal charges against “your girl” for what may be counted among the most jawdroppingly moronic things any Secretary of State did.

  15. El El El Dub can’t even get that a poll taken before Thursday night may look much different than one before the debate.

    Do you have any idea at all how many elections were lost because of hitting the wrong note during a debate?

    Dumb question. Of course you don’t.

  16. In most cases, there are a series of steps or gradations between one event and the one in question and no reason is given why the necessary intervening steps or gradations will simply be bypassed.

    So, basically, you are saying “Bush was a successful and popular governor of Florida, he currently leads Rubio, therefore he will win Florida and the nomination” and yet there are many steps he has to take successfully for that to happen–and you don’t even know those steps (nobody can before the fact–he might have to defuse a scandal) but suggest it is inevitable he will accomplish that.

    This is called the “slippery slope” fallacy.

  17. “Bush will be nominated, Trump will run as a third party; Clinton wins.”

    You forgot to begin your fairy tale with the obligatory,
    “Once upon a time in a galaxy far, far away.”

  18. “But look for Trump to see THAT writing on the wall and strike a DEALwith the Party bosses (RNC) to NOT run as a Third Party candidate”

    That’s political blackmail…something Trump does well

  19. Labman. Trump knows how to sell snake oil to the GOPer base that loves snake oil.

    He will probable make another “remark” about Hispanics-Border and the debate spat will be over.

  20. *chuckles* Yup. John Ellis Bush. But don’t feel stupid. He’s always used JEB in his career and I grew up in Florida. Love him or hate him, Floridians KNOW John.

  21. Let’s see, these people elected Gore, but he lost, so they elected Jeb, twice, & then Rick Scott? Now they want TrumpTheChumpInc?
    Big surprise.

    ALEC has the demographic data….ALEC uses corporate raiding techniques on entire United States…ok…

    C’Ya! Alec!

  22. Bush was all for the elite in Florida when he was governor. One thing that could have so easily shown his concern for “the average person” was to fight to eliminate”the Fire At Will” bill . This allows any so called “boss” to fire anyone without the need to state the reason. It seems almost Un-American to me. And yes, with Scott, this law still holds.

  23. When Jeb Bush was governor of Florida his primary interests were with the financially elite who put him in the governors seat.
    If he had been “for the people”, he surely would have repealed the “Fire At will Law” that still exists in Florida today. This one action would have created an atmosphere where the boss is not viewed as “the Master”, and giving the ordinary worker the right to have opinions and differences without being fired.

  24. I do not believe that my comment has “disappeared twice, now. Here goes again.
    Bush did nothing for the little people in Florida. He could have so easily repealed the “Fire AT Will “law which basically makes one’s boss one’s Master.

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