New Model Projects A Democratic Landslide Victory in 2016

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Moody’s analytics model has correctly predicted every presidential election since 1980, and their data forecasts a Democratic landslide in 2016.

According to Dan White who is the senior economist at Moody’s Analytics:

Our Moody’s Analytics election model now predicts a Democratic electoral landslide in the 2016 presidential vote. A small change in the forecast data in August has swung the outcome from the statistical tie predicted in July, to a razor-edge ballot outcome that nevertheless gives the incumbent party 326 electoral votes to the Republican challenger’s 212.

Just three states account for the change in margin, with Ohio, Florida and Colorado swinging from leaning Republican to leaning Democrat. The margin of victory in each of these important swing states is still solidly within the margin of error though, and will likely swing back and forth in Moody’s monthly updates ahead, underlining the closeness of the election to come. Furthermore, three of the candidates for the Republican nomination enjoy favorite-son status in Ohio or Florida, potentially making the outcome of those important states even more unpredictable.

Falling gas prices are the main reason the incumbent party is favored to keep the White House in 2016. There is a degree of common sense to the Moody’s model. Falling gas prices help to create favorable economic conditions. Almost all presidential elections are decided on the economy. If the economy is good, voters are less likely to make a change in the White House.

The one recent election that is the exception is 2000, where Al Gore’s refusal to deploy Bill Clinton on his behalf in the general election campaign probably cost him the White House as Gore won the popular vote but lost a dubious recount in Florida.

If the economy doesn’t crash, Democrats are in good shape. The model results help to explain why Republicans are trying to turn Hillary Clinton’s emails into a big scandal. Without a major scandal, it is going to be difficult for Republicans to win.

Democrats have the advantage in demographics and organization. Unless Republicans can suppress the vote or a gin up a scandal, they are going to struggle to win.

Of course, the results of one model do not mean that Democrats can rest easy. The work is just beginning. As Moody’s pointed out, the predicted outcome is likely to change many times before Election Day.

The message is clear for Democrats. A landslide is possible as long as they stay vigilant and work hard in 2016.

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59 Replies to “New Model Projects A Democratic Landslide Victory in 2016”

  1. DUH!!! We’ve seen how destructive Republican’t policies are, AND WE HAVE HAD ENOUGH O’ THEIR “F”ING SHIT!!!
    …aside from that, they’re all ugly and their Mothers dress ’em funny…

  2. If this is true then our nominee should be able to swing some districts that President Obama won or lost by a few points

  3. Ok so no big surprise here. One thing though, Al Gore did not lose in a dubious recount. The supreme court declared Bush the winner

  4. They have been ordered to redraw the congressional districts in Florida and tried but now it is up to the courts since they couldn’t agree.

    The orginal was horrible. The second version a little more blue. We will find out how the third version is when they finish and release the new district maps.

    Ordered by the Supreme Court of Fl after the League of Women Voters won a law suit.

    Plus the GOTV effort and this states dems riled up by all the games played.

    Florida will be blue.

  5. After reading this if you don’t vote because your candidate didn’t win or throw your vote away by being stupid then you deserve what’s coming

    Conservatives Are Waiting For Their Shot At Dismantling The New Deal

    The Rehabilitationists

    How a small band of determined legal academics set out to persuade the Supreme Court to undo the New Deal—and have almost won.
    http://www.newrepublic.com/article/122645/rehabilitationists-libertarian-movement-undo-new-deal

  6. Now wait!! As soon as Republicans can retrieve all those jobs and infrastructure bills off Harry Reid’s desk you know things will improve!

  7. America must repudiate the Terrorist Party once and for all. We must send them a VERY loud and clear message that their racism, their xenophobia, their inability to govern effectively, and their unending attempts to destroy the social safety net in this country WILL NOT be tolerated any further.

    They are economic terrorists, nothing more nothing less. EVERYTHING they touch turns to garbage. Every economy they run goes down the shitter. Every time they are in power, we have more unemployment and less opportunities for Americans. THAT much is blatantly obvious.

    And don’t even get me started on Trump!

  8. “…and will likely swing back and forth in Moody’s monthly updates ahead, underlining the CLOSENESS of the election to come.”

    DO NOT BE FOOLED YET AGAIN! The election will NOT be close. The Media and Moody’s want and desperately need a horse race for profits and ratings and their narrative will assure one yet again…

    They said the last election would be close…it was not. They said the election before that would be close…it was not. They said the election before that would be….

    You get the idea. Dont believe the media hype. The Democrats will win and it will not be close. The GOTP can thank its Hispanic and minority outreach for that! And Trump.

  9. The landslide victory Jason writes about is something I&I
    pray to Jah for each night. So much depends on the next
    election’s outcome. Party loyalty should ‘trump’ nominee
    fervour regardless of who gets the nod. And if voter fraud is so damn rampant, vote Democratic as many
    times as ya can. (LMFAO)

  10. This is almost meaningless. So much depends on WHO is running. Two of the three swing states mentioned are Florida and Ohio. The Republicans have been working towards a ticket with Jeb or Marco Rubio as President and Kasich as VP to secure these two states.

  11. In another thread on the same topic, I echoed a woman who posted the following:
    I’m going to vote (primary) for Hillary because I believe she has a better chance of carrying votes from the centrist Independents.
    I’m going to vote, in the General Election, for the Dem candidate, whether Hillary or Bernie (or Joe B) — because every vote counts (see FL 2000).

    If the GOP wins the WH in 2016, it’s the fault of complacent or lazy Democrats who don’t bother to show up and make their votes count. If “you” live in a Red State that’s made it hard to vote, make sure you understand the rules and make sure to vote.

  12. This sickens me. It’s somebody’s way of saying “it in the bag, you don’t have to vote.” If I were the Koch brothers I’d pay for polls like this all day long.

    And just because we may or may not keep the white house doesn’t mean much if we don’t regain the senate and a few repub seats in the house. By 2026 there will be 4 or more new supremes. Who do you want appointing them, Bern/Hil or Donny? Obtain the court and you can keep the US until 2050 or later.

    So lets celebrate, the elections over and some pollster said the Dems won! Oh wait, the election is 14 moths away and not a single primary (much less general) election vote has been cast. We Dems have a history of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

    Support the people running for the congress and senate and your statehouse, throw them a few bucks if you can! I’m sure they’ll appreciate it.

    Retake a few house seats in 2016, a few more in 2018 and the majority in 2020. We have to play the long game. Reapportionm…

  13. If “you” live in a Red State that’s made it hard to vote, make sure you understand the rules and make sure to vote.
    ———————————-
    That’s where the DCCC should be putting their money at. EDUCATION!!!!! But don’t count it with the idiot Debbie Wasserman Shultz running the show

  14. We tried to make that argument in 2010 but the emos and firebaggers didn’t vote because they didn’t get their golden unicorns and look what happened

  15. My Hispanic daughter just turned 18 recently and is RARING to vote against the Republicans. She’s had all she can take of their verbal diarrhea and so have the majority of Latinos.

    My daughter is one of MILLIONS!!

  16. I agree with this predicted outcome based on the loony toons in the Republican party. But remember, the only poll that counts is the one on election day. So make your vote count and get out there on election day.

  17. Republicans are like farts. They’re nasty and disgusting but it is hard to keep from laughing at them.

  18. No – WE don’t deserve what the sore losers hand us in sulks.

    Look – your vote is YOUR vote but it is FOR the good of the nation and our people. It’s not your vote alone. Every dipshit who voted for Nader in 1980 handed us this massive steam roller of RW politics. It’s on every single person who does NOT accept that we are a 2-party system. Don’t have to love it. You DO have to use it. It’s not all about YOU, dear – it’s about all of US. Every vote that lets the RW carry on is fascistic in nature. It hands power to the powerful and not one damned bit different.

    Your vote. USE it wisely instead of stupidly. The RW do. How can you be dumber than they are?

  19. I am disappointed to not read anything about Bernie Sanders here. And I am depressed to think of the first female president as Hillary Clinton. Yes, I would prefer a Democrat over a Republican but I am VERY tired of choosing the lesser of two evils. Sanders is the real deal and would be the greatest thing we have a done as a country in a very long time. I am not going to bash Hillary. She has her agenda and that is fine.Based on the issues.. and her voting record and stances on issues I do not think she will be good for the country. If you have not read about Bernie Sanders yet .. check him out. We are the people and WE can defy ANY poll. Let’s get Bernie into office have him change our country and wait for a woman who truly deserves the honor of representing women across the country.
    http://feelthebern.org

  20. League of women voters huh?.Maybe we need to vote a few more women into office. What could it hurt when you see what goes on now(congress anyone?) Falls to the Dems. Only tokens allowed in GOP.

  21. …nobody has to take an oath, sign a pledge OR make a human sacrifice…
    …but can we agree to vote Democratic???

  22. Deej, Bernie’s just before calling out the prohibitionists
    and publicly supporting legalization. Fasten seatbelt, pour another round, and add a folded towel to that desk
    top. OT, but we haven’t heard from Moon lately.
    Whazzup?

  23. Shame on you djchefron. Like me you are a grizzled old goat scarred by to many elections to remember your own youth and enthusiasm.

    I honestly hope this mans daughter get really excited and informed ON THE CANDIDATES AND THE ISSUES! She’s 18 now, after this court changeover the next time there will be any big change will be about 2050 or later. By that time both of us will probably be Purina worm chow and she will have another 20 years of voting ahead of her. She and her generation will be voting on our social security!

    I hope she finds the time to work for a candidate with a D behind their name. Answering phones or web blogging and networking with her generation. The future is hers, not ours!

    Don’t be a wet blanket, let her be excited about Nov 2016. Excitement is infectious, we need all that we can get.

    So young lady, welcome to the voter rolls! we need you and many more just like you very badly. I hope you recruit as many of your friends to the cause as possible!

  24. Sue, you are so right. It’s way too early to make the call. I can easily see a Republican landslide if Clinton gets the Democratic nomination and Sanders’ supporters stay home (as I’ve seen them say they’ll do time and time again).

  25. Yes, Bernie has a great agenda. But, it is not different from Hillary Clinton’s. They are both progressives. We need women to vote for Hillary. We need a woman in the White House. And for those who say, it’s not about the gender, it is about the person. Think about this. We’ve had 43 white males and 1 black male. Mrs. Clinton will be a champion for American families — all families, from health care, to pay equality, to early childhood education, to gun safety. You name it. And for people who don’t like her because she is too aggressive? Well, duh! We like the “tough guy”, right? So let’s elect a “tough gal”!

  26. Sanders supporters who say they will stay home if Hillary wins the nomination are fools as far as I’m concerned. They would be dishonoring Bernie Sanders by doing so, and ignoring his message. Better they should show up and hold their noses to vote against the republicans.

  27. Predict a landslide and keep repeating it.

    Maybe it will cause enough despair among Republicans that they don’t go to the polls, because they can’t win.

    Maybe it will raise such overconfidence that Democrats, Independents, and everyone else figure they don’t need to vote…because we can’t lose.

    Damn all polls. Damn the media and their slavish devotion to polls. Damn politicians for playing to the polls.

    Damn the rest of us for putting so much stock in polls. And if we are complacent, we will be.

  28. Hillary Clinton is going to be the next President of the United States of America. She has no competition in this race. She has a lock on the delegates and on the women, African American, Hispanic, and other minority voters, LGBT community, and voters with an IQ in three digits. She’s going to win.

  29. I hope so but a recent Gallup poll on Hispanic support for the two party candidates has me scratching my head. The Democrats should have a huge lead in Hispanic support over the GOP but according to Gallup it’s much narrower then I imagined. Trump is hated by Hispanics obviously but the other GOP candidates fare surprisingly better.

  30. That’s why you have to take polls with a grain of salt. At the end of the day, polls are not votes. I’m married to and live amongst Hispanics in a Spanish neighborhood in a predominately Hispanic part of the city (my kid’s school is 50% Latino). Believe me, the Republicans have lost them.

  31. In my state (MI), I’ve noticed Dems are introducing a bunch of anti-gerrymandering bills. I don’t know the odds of their passing, but they’re trying to think ahead to prevent voter suppression, hanging chads, etc.

    I’m not taking anything for granted either, but my fingers are crossed.

  32. I agree. My Granddaughter and son plus all their friends in the 18 – 21 and up ages are all voting for Sanders. They are all over Tumblr where they literally were showed how to get all voter registration forms. They know what the issues are about. We don’t see them because most of us are on FB, etc. but they are all talking. They are all gung ho because the kids of today see people as equals, gay, Trans, race plus they are not the religious kids that were brought up yrs. ago when those values were really strict. Today the Atheists, mostly kids, don’t care about that but only what is going to be their future and what they have observed with the jobs and tuition, etc. They are in it to win it and from what I see they will turn this farce of a system around.

  33. What poll? Gallup on the 24th shows they are single digit support (Jeb has 11% – barely double digit)

    They aren’t all in the minus 51% of Donald but they are all doing poorly among Hisp.

  34. Having Kasich on the ticket and/or Bush or Rubio would make the R’s very competitive in Ohio and Florida….would be a very close election either way.

  35. Kennedy 80 by Nov 2016 27 Yrs on the bench
    Scalia 80 ” ” ” 28 ” ” ” ”
    Ginsberg 83 ” ” ” 22 ” ” ” ”
    Breyer 77 by Nov 2016 21 ” ” ” ”

    By 2020 the youngest of these 4 justices will be 81 yrs old and will have been on the bench for at least 25 years! When they say LIFETIME APPOINTMENT, the mean it!

    Thomas 68 by Nov 2016 23 yrs on the bench
    Alito 66 ” ” ” 9 ” ” ” ”
    Sotomayor 62 ” ” ” 6 ” ” ” ”
    Chief Justice Roberts 61 by Nov 2016 9 yrs on the bench

    These 4 justices (barring something unexpected) will serve until 2030 or later

    And the baby of the group

    Kagan 56 by Nov 2016 5 yrs on the bench. If she stays healthy she’ll be on the bench until 2040.

    These 9 people have virtually unlimited power. Hillary/Bernie appoint and we win. Donny appoints and the billionaires win. Citizens united must go, the court is the only entity to do it, congress won’t!

    Your 18 year old daughter will be 40 – 50 yo by the time the last of these people leave the court. We decide who repl…

  36. Well said. Debbie Wasserman Schultz is incompetent and incapable of galvanizing the Democratic voter base. We need a better, more organized leader for the DNC, or we’re going to lose this election due to sheer incompetence. We have to be smarter and work harder than the GOP, and we have to have the right people in leadership positions to make that happen. The DNC desperately needs a better leader than we currently have.

  37. I would suspect that, should Hillary get the nomination, Bernie will endorse her loudly and clearly, and explain very well how important it is for every one of his followers to get out and VOTE for the Democratic nominee even though it’s not him. He’s just that kind of person, I think.
    And, hopefully, every one of his supporters (me included) will take his words to heart and vote (D) anyway. Because it’s just too *bleeping* important not to.
    Vote as if your life depends up it. Because it does.
    That said, I must say I definitely #FeelTheBern! *grins*

  38. Maggie, I must break it to you, but I belong squarely in two (if not three, depending on your definition of them) of those categories – I’m female, have a Mensa-qualified I.Q., and have enough minority blood in my veins that I pay close attention to how we get treated, and I am a strong supporter of Bernie Sanders.
    He has never once, in decades, said a single thing I substantially disagree with, unlike Hillary and her work with Monsanto and on trying to shove the KXL pipeline through and over and into our aquifers and farmlands. That doesn’t even mention her years of being buddy-buddy with Wall Street, though she’s trying to walk that back now that she’s hearing the response to Bernie’s speeches.
    I will support him through the entire primary season, and will do everything I can to get the word out on his stance on important issues, but when the primary is over, I will wholeheartedly support whoever has a (D) behind his or her name; I believe this election is that important.

  39. Ms mensa, right.

    Hillary has zero to do with Monsanto and there is nothing true about your xl spiel.

    She has been for regulating wall as well.

    Read a little beyond your propaganda filled bernout boards.

    You lie about Hillary and we all know the truth.

  40. Bush/Rubio is their strongest ticket.

    That said Hillary could beat them here in Fl. She does well in polls here and despite not having a normal primary in Florida in 08 she was very strong here.

    She can beat them both on their own turf.

    Their negatives are well known here.

  41. I see a lot of reasons for voting against the Republicans. But it is ridiculous for us to be voting for a president based upon gasoline prices. Why should a president get credit or blame for that? And why should we pass on that credit or blame to the next candidate of the president’s party?

  42. Church Lady, Nader the nadir was in 2000. In 1980, it was John Anderson, and I was one of the fools who voted for Anderson; but I *never* did that again. Beginning with Mondale in 1984, I’ve always voted straight ticket Democratic.

  43. Hillary is not “second best” to Bernie, she *is* the best. In the mere 8 years she spent in the Senate she sponsored or cosponsored more legislation than he did in three times as much time on Capitol Hill. Bernie’s great with speeches, but doing little else. As Sec of State, she repaired the damage done by GW Bush, especially in the Middle East, and she is respected by all world leaders, both friend and foe.

    Hillary supported Single Payer. In the 1990s, the right wing media weren’t screaming about Bernie Sanders, they were screaming about Hillary Clinton. A person can be defined by the enemies they make.

    Many make a big deal about her wealth, but it’s money that she and Bill made. Hillary was from a middle class GOP family, it wasn’t an inherited fortune like those of Bush or Trump; and it wasn’t until she went to college that her world view changed. In 1972, the former Young Republican was working on the McGovern For President campaign. To stand up to your own family takes …

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