Last updated on September 25th, 2023 at 01:47 pm
The chatter surrounding a potential Joe Biden run for the Democratic nomination is growing and a new poll found that a Biden candidacy draws almost all of its support from Hillary Clinton.
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Clinton is backed by 42% of Democratic primary voters nationally, compared to 24% for Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, 22% for Biden and 1% for former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley.
That’s a marked improvement over an early September CNN/ORC poll that found Clinton leading Sanders, 37% to 27%, with Biden at 20%.
And Biden’s support comes almost entirely from Clinton’s camp. Without the vice president in the race, Clinton’s numbers climb by 15 percentage points, while Sanders’ increase by only 4 points — giving Clinton a nearly 2-to-1 lead at 57% to 28%, with O’Malley moving up to 2%.
The good news for Hillary Clinton is that as summer turns to fall, the Republican-driven email scandal is fading away. Her negative media coverage is decreasing, and her poll numbers are moving up again. The bad news for Hillary Clinton is that if Vice President Biden runs for the Democratic nomination, the primary race will get more complicated.
A potential Biden candidacy is also not good news for Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT). The Vice President will immediately threaten Sen. Sanders for number two spot in the race. Bernie Sanders has benefitted from being perceived by the media as former Sec. of State Clinton’s strongest challenger. Sanders is already outgunned in terms of fundraising. If his free media dries up, and he falls to third in the contest, he may have a difficult time gaining traction beyond Iowa and New Hampshire.
Clinton has gained five points, and Sanders has lost five points in the last few weeks. For Bernie Sanders to capitalize on a potential three-way Democratic contest, he needs to continue to introduce new voters to the process. If the Democratic primary electorate gets bigger, Sen. Sanders could ride a wave of new voters to the nomination. If the Independent from Vermont is forced to contest the primary among the traditional Democratic base, he could get squeezed out of the race.
No matter what public statements the Clinton campaign makes to the contrary, a run by Vice President Biden hurts her campaign and makes the race more complicated for both Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders.
Jason is the managing editor. He is also a White House Press Pool and a Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association
