If Joe Biden Runs He Will Take 15 Points Of Support Away From Hillary Clinton


The chatter surrounding a potential Joe Biden run for the Democratic nomination is growing and a new poll found that a Biden candidacy draws almost all of its support from Hillary Clinton.

Via CNN:

Clinton is backed by 42% of Democratic primary voters nationally, compared to 24% for Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, 22% for Biden and 1% for former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley.

That’s a marked improvement over an early September CNN/ORC poll that found Clinton leading Sanders, 37% to 27%, with Biden at 20%.

And Biden’s support comes almost entirely from Clinton’s camp. Without the vice president in the race, Clinton’s numbers climb by 15 percentage points, while Sanders’ increase by only 4 points — giving Clinton a nearly 2-to-1 lead at 57% to 28%, with O’Malley moving up to 2%.

The good news for Hillary Clinton is that as summer turns to fall, the Republican-driven email scandal is fading away. Her negative media coverage is decreasing, and her poll numbers are moving up again. The bad news for Hillary Clinton is that if Vice President Biden runs for the Democratic nomination, the primary race will get more complicated.

A potential Biden candidacy is also not good news for Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT). The Vice President will immediately threaten Sen. Sanders for number two spot in the race. Bernie Sanders has benefitted from being perceived by the media as former Sec. of State Clinton’s strongest challenger. Sanders is already outgunned in terms of fundraising. If his free media dries up, and he falls to third in the contest, he may have a difficult time gaining traction beyond Iowa and New Hampshire.

Clinton has gained five points, and Sanders has lost five points in the last few weeks. For Bernie Sanders to capitalize on a potential three-way Democratic contest, he needs to continue to introduce new voters to the process. If the Democratic primary electorate gets bigger, Sen. Sanders could ride a wave of new voters to the nomination. If the Independent from Vermont is forced to contest the primary among the traditional Democratic base, he could get squeezed out of the race.

No matter what public statements the Clinton campaign makes to the contrary, a run by Vice President Biden hurts her campaign and makes the race more complicated for both Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders.

12 Replies to “If Joe Biden Runs He Will Take 15 Points Of Support Away From Hillary Clinton”

  1. The election is not a horse race. Stop handicapping, start discussing what future we want. Not which horse you back.

  2. You misunderstand the poll and your conclusion makes no sense and isn’t what anyone is saying.

    He doesn’t take 15 points from her. She remains where she is with him included.

    If he is not mentioned by pollsters as an option she gains 15. If he enters an actual candidacy there is little idea how big a bump he will get or from where. They can only poll on hypotheticals and his 22 percent is what he would approximately start at in the race.

    He wouldn’t jump 15 more points.

    If offered Biden as an alternative some of Hillary’s base chose him.

    If not offered Biden then approx 75% of his base choses her. They share a base – that is all. Same with Obama – it was the same base.

    Your headline is wrong.

    Everytime you interpret a poll it is not accurate, it seems.

  3. As for Joe running, seriously, he earned it and is a sitting VP.

    That said, I have watched Joe run twice before and everybody knows his weaknesses.

    He will certainly be in 2nd place instantly and tightenen the numbers.

    The rumors in the past few days are coming from TOTAL unreliable and far right propaganda merchants.

    She is playing the long game. Her support is historical and record breaking already.

    No candidate has had 440 delegates even when they were at the convention – let alone months before the first vote.

  4. Run, don’t run. Just make up your mind.

    Are you afraid to act the way you desire? Will you take the crown you want so badly, or will you live as a coward, always saying “I can’t” after you say “I want to”? You’re like the poor cat in the old story. [Sparknote’s modern language version of MacBeth, Act 1, scene 7.]

  5. I don’t believe Biden is the type of politician who would enjoy splitting the vote. Believe he would want to do the best for the country. That includes not splitting the vote so a rethug may grab the White House.] which by the way the thugs would enjoy very much. It’s been their aim for years to destroy, then create THEIR view of America. Listen to tnem, You’ll find out quickly just what that view is.

  6. Jane,
    Whether Biden does or does not decide to run, one thing he has proved, beyond doubt, is that he’s no coward.

    A coward? Really?

  7. True, it was the part of the quote that didn’t quite apply. I left it in to avoid possibly losing the overall meaning, ie of wanting something yet holding back from pursuing it.

    BTW, MacBeth was not a coward either. That was just his wife’s quaint little way of persuading him to act. Probably the Carly Fiorina of her day.

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