The latest WBUR New Hampshire Republican primary poll shows Ben Carson falling, Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio flatlining, and Republicans heading for defeat as Donald Trump increases his lead.
Donald Trump’s lead has grown from 18% to 22% while Ben Carson has dropped four points from 15% to 11%. Marco Rubio was unable to build on his seven-point gain of two weeks ago. Rubio went from 9% to 11%. Ted Cruz gained two points and moved to 9%. Jeb Bush is stuck at 7% with John Kasich. Bitter enemies Chris Christie and Rand Paul are tied at 5%, and the bubble has burst for Carly Fiorina, who has tumbled to 3%. When leaners are factored in, Marco Rubio rises to a second place tie with Ben Carson at 13%, but both Republicans are ten points behind Trump’s 23%.
New Hampshire Republican voters thought Rubio (36%) and Cruz (16%) did the best job in the debate and Trump was voted the second worst in the most recent debate, but it doesn’t seem to matter because Trump’s lead continues to grow. Rubio (57%) and Cruz (44%) both have higher favorable ratings than Trump (43%), but this also does not seem to matter. The conventional metrics that are used to measure candidate momentum are being turned upside down by Trump.
It doesn’t seem to matter what Donald Trump does a solid group of core Republican supporters are still going to vote for him. Republicans are on a fast-track to defeat in 2016 because a sizable number of their primary voters want Donald Trump at the top of the ticket. Republican primary voters don’t care that Trump is unelectable and could cost them the Senate and a bushel of House seats.
They have decided that Trump is their guy. If the Republican Party is unable to stop Trump and Carson, they will not only lose in 2016, but they will lose badly. The Democratic Party is more unified and better organized. It is unlikely that Donald Trump would be able to get more than 45% of the popular vote in the general election, and odds are that he would do much worse than Mitt Romney did in 2012.
Republicans are bent on self-destruction, which is why all Democrats have to do is sit back and watch the trainwreck unfold.
Mr. Easley is the managing editor. He is also a White House Press Pool and a Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association