Last updated on September 25th, 2023 at 01:50 pm
A new Gallup poll revealed that Hillary Clinton’s favorability with Democratic voters has grown by an additional eight point in the last month, but Clinton has one vulnerability that Sanders could exploit as a path to victory.
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Both candidates have seen a slight uptick in their favorable ratings among all Democrats since Gallup’s last update, which was based on data collected Sept. 12-Oct. 10, just before the first Democratic debate on Oct. 13. But while Clinton’s unfavorable percentage has edged downward, Sanders’ has increased slightly. The result? The gap between Clinton’s and Sanders’ net favorable ratings has expanded.
Sanders has gained five points in familiarity; even so, only two-thirds of Democrats know enough about the Vermont senator to have an opinion of him, compared with Clinton’s nearly universal familiarity.
Clinton has done a complete turnaround with Democratic men. She moved from trailing Sanders by a net (-1) in favorability with men to leading by a net (+15).
Where Bernie Sanders continues to have an advantage is with younger Democratic voters. Sanders has gained three points in favorability and expanded his lead to a net (+11).
The contest for the Democratic nomination is coming down to whether or not Bernie Sanders can get younger Democratic voters out to vote in sufficient numbers to offset Hillary Clinton’s huge advantage with the Democratic base.
There have been some comparisons drawn to Obama 2008 and Sanders 2016.
The problem for Sanders currently is that he is not performing as well with younger voters as President Obama did in 2008.
Below are the NBC News exit polls from 2008:
For Sanders to match or exceed what Obama did in 2008, he needs to perform even better with younger voters. In Iowa, Obama won young voters 57%-11% in 2008, but the latest CNN poll of Iowa shows Sanders leading Clinton with voters under age 50, 52%-42%.
The Hillary Clinton campaign deserves a ton of credit because they have fixed many of the issues that plagued her 2008 run for the White House. The one remaining Clinton vulnerability is with younger voters. President Obama won the Democratic nomination because he was able to stay close to Clinton with the Democratic base while dominating with younger voters and African-Americans.
The Sanders campaign may have one shot to make the Democratic race competitive, and that is to inject massive amounts of young Democratic voters into the primaries and caucuses. If he is successful, Sanders could turn the contest for the Democratic nomination into a close race, but if the Sanders campaign doesn’t bring enough young people into the process, Clinton could cruise to the nomination.
Hillary Clinton is not invincible, but Bernie Sanders is going to need to draw an inside straight (to borrow a poker term) to win the Democratic nomination.
Jason is the managing editor. He is also a White House Press Pool and a Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association
