Last updated on September 25th, 2023 at 01:53 pm
The latest Franklin Pierce University and the Boston Herald Democratic poll of New Hampshire found that Hillary Clinton has gained 13 points on Bernie Sanders in the past week, and has cut the Sanders lead from 20 points to 7 points.
Sanders still leads Clinton 51%-44%, but his lead has shrunk 13 points from the 57%-37% lead that he enjoyed last week. Clinton’s favorability has increased slightly from 72%-75%. Sanders’ favorability has stayed almost the same going from 88% to 87%. Clinton gained seven points of support from Democratic voters while Sanders lost 6 points.
The margin for Clinton to pull off an upset in New Hampshire is small. Only 20% of New Hampshire Democratic voters said that they are open to changing their minds. The open-minded voters would have to shift to Clinton by more than a 2 to 1 margin for her to win the primary. Each candidate is getting support for different reasons. The number one reason that voters support Clinton is her experience and record. The top reason that voters support Sanders is that he supports issues that are important to them.
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It has been expected by both campaigns that the race in New Hampshire would tighten up. As was the case in Iowa, the polls in New Hampshire all over the place. The only point that every poll agrees on is that Bernie Sanders is winning. The problem for the Sanders campaign is that expectations are sky high.
If Sanders does not win New Hampshire by double digits, the results will be viewed as a victory for Clinton. A single digit loss would allow Clinton to use the same comeback narrative that Bernie Sanders employed after his near loss in Iowa. The road is about to become more challenging for Sen. Sanders after New Hampshire. The campaigns will head to Nevada for the February 20 caucuses; then it is on to South Carolina. Once the primary reaches South Carolina, it will kick off a run of states that Clinton will be favored to win.
Sen. Sanders needs a big win in New Hampshire to carry him into Nevada, but Hillary Clinton is not giving up the Granite State without a fight.
Jason is the managing editor. He is also a White House Press Pool and a Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association
