I’m With Stupid: Trump Wins 45% of the High School or Less Vote In New Hampshire

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According to exit polling data complied by NBC News, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump fared particularly well with the high school graduates or less crowd whereas Governor Kasich (R-OH) did well with the post grads. In overall terms it broke down: High school graduate or less Trump 45% Cruz 14% Bush 12% Kasich 9%, more than high school graduate: Trump 29% Kasich 17% Rubio 13% Cruz 12% Bush 11%. But post grads went for Kasich at 21%, even to Trump.

The numbers via NBC News (edited to top five):

High school or less15% Trump 45% Cruz 14% Bush 12% Kasich 9% Rubio 9%

Some college/assoc. degree30% Trump 35% Kasich 14% Rubio 13% Cruz 12% Bush 9%

College graduate35% Trump 30% Kasich 16% Rubio 13% Cruz 13% Bush 11%

Postgraduate study20% Trump 21% Kasich 21% Rubio 15% Bush 14% Cruz 11%

A statistic that will be troubling for the national Republican Party is that Trump won 30% of the self-described “moderate” vote, with Kasich, who actually passes for a moderate in today’s Republican party (grading on a curve) so close at 27%. The only people who didn’t go for Trump were the self-described white evangelical or white born again Christians – they love Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX), which is setting up a mano e mano situation in the South Carolina primary as the Palmetto state is dominated by evangelicals.

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In contrast, in a primary where Democratic turnout was slightly higher than Republican (according to current numbers, this might change when we get final numbers tomorrow), Democrat Bernie Sanders got the more than high school graduate vote: Sanders 58% Clinton 41% and the high school graduate or less Sanders 60% Clinton 39%.

Overall, Democrats had 88% with more than high school grad vote and Republicans had 85% with more than a high school grad vote. The takeaway is that Trump has locked up the less educated vote and Kasich does well when the higher educated turn out.