The Harvard IOP Spring Poll found that millennial support for Democrats keeping the White House has doubled as Donald Trump is despised by younger voters.
Young Americans prefer that a Democrat win the White House over a Republican in the 2016 presidential race. More than three in five (61%) prefer that a Democrat win the White House, while 33% prefer a Republican. The divide of 28 points is nearly double what it was in Spring 2015, when the divide was 15 percentage points (55% Democrat; 40% Republican). Among young white voters, Democrats now have a 2-percentage point advantage (-12: Spring 2015), among African American voters, that advantage grows to 78 percentage points (79: Spring 2015) and among Hispanics, the advantage is 55 points (41: Spring 2015).
Among Likely Voters, Clinton Leads Trump by 36 Points; Trump Underperforming Among Young Republicans. Among likely voters, Clinton maintains the same 61% that a “generic Democrat” receives, while Donald Trump receives 25%, 8 percentage points lower than the current “generic Republican” White House preference. Among young Democrats, Clinton leads Trump by 78 points (83%: Clinton; 5%: Trump), but among Republicans, Trump leads by only 44 points (57%: Trump; 13%: Clinton). Among Independents, Clinton has a 23-point lead (43%: Clinton; 20%: Trump), with 36% undecided. Clinton leads significantly with both men and women. Among men, it’s 47% for Clinton, 29% supporting Trump; and the lead expands among women, with 57% for Clinton and 15% for Trump. Clinton has a narrow 6-point lead among 18- to 29-year-old whites (38%: Clinton; 32%: Trump), but polls into the 70s with both the black and Hispanic communities. Among African Americans, Clinton leads Trump 76% to 5%, and among Hispanics, she has a similar-sized lead at 71% to Trump’s 9%.
Bernie Sanders is the only one of the five presidential candidates with a positive net approval rating among millennials (+23), but Donald Trump is putting up some negative numbers with younger voters that are astounding. Overall, Trump has a net negative approval rating of (-57), and a net negative rating among millennial Republicans of (-20).
The numbers suggest that millennials can’t stand Trump. Donald Trump is the presidential candidate embodiment of Fox News. It is striking, but not a coincidence that Trump pushes millennials away to the same degree that younger people tend to avoid the top-rated cable news network. The Donald Trump campaign is all of the talking points and tactics that Fox uses to scares to the grandparents of millennials implemented in a presidential campaign.
Donald Trump’s views represent the kind of intolerance and bigotry that millennials across the political spectrum oppose. There has been a great deal of media chatter about Hillary Clinton’s struggles with younger voters in the Democratic primary, but if Republicans nominate Trump or Cruz, it won’t matter.
Millennials aren’t stupid. They are going to vote for the candidate who best represents their positions, and that candidate is not Donald Trump.
Mr. Easley is the managing editor. He is also a White House Press Pool and a Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association