The red state of Arizona could turn blue in November as both Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders lead Donald Trump in the state’s potential general election matchups.
In statewide test elections run between April 4 and 11, 2016, prior to the New York primary election, Donald Trump loses to both Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton. Even more surprising, Senator Bernie Sanders beats all of the GOP contenders by: 54% to 33% over Trump, 48 % to 34% over Cruz and by 47% to 33% over Kasich. Democrat Hillary Clinton also bests Trump by a narrower 42% to 35% but then loses in Arizona to Ted Cruz by 43% to 38% and trails John Kasich by 44% to 32%.
Senator Clinton does not do as well among younger voters, but she leads Trump by 50% to 30%, splits the vote against Kasich (36% to 37%) and loses to Ted Cruz by 49% to 38%.
Both Secretary Clinton and Senator Sanders swamp Trump among women voters by nearly two to one. This is perhaps the clearest sign we have seen to date that Trump has deeply alienated women votes regardless of political affiliation. Against Ted Cruz and Kasich, Clinton has no advantage in the women’s vote.
To date, there has not been a single poll that shows Donald Trump flipping a blue state into the Republican column in November. For all of his talk about bringing millions of voters into the Republican Party, the truth is that Trump’s stances on immigration and banning Muslims may cause some red states to turn blue.
The GOP’s Trump problem goes beyond policy. Donald Trump’s unfavorable rating is 70%. If the Republican Party nominates Trump, they will be selecting the most unpopular presidential nominee in modern American electoral history. There is no doubt that there is immense potential for Trump to cost Republicans states that they have previously won.
The big questions are centered around how many states Republicans could lose, and how having Trump at the top of the ticket will harm down-ballot Republicans?
The state of Jan Brewer, Joe Arpaio, and John McCain could be won by Democrats this fall because Republican and Democratic women have been completely alienated by Donald Trump.
Mr. Easley is the founder/managing editor and Senior White House and Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA.Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association