A new Electoral College projection map shows the immediate impact of Donald Trump’s nomination as 11 states have moved towards the Democratic column.
The Cook Political Report’s updated Electoral College map contains all bad news for Republicans. Colorado and Florida were moved from toss-up to lean Democratic. Pennsylvania, Florida, and Wisconsin moved from toss up to solidly Democratic. North Carolina went from leaning Republican to toss-up. Georgia and Arizona went from likely Republican to lean Republican, and Indiana went from solid Republican to likely Republican.
According to The Cook Political Report more states could be projected to go blue in November, “With these changes, 190 Electoral Votes are in the Solid Democratic column, 27 are in Likely Democratic, and another 87 are in Lean Democratic – enough for a majority. Yet another 44 Electoral Votes are in Toss Up. Although Iowa, New Hampshire and Ohio could shift to Lean Democratic and Nevada could shift to Likely Democratic, we are holding off on changes in these states until we see more evidence.”
The Cook projection sees Democrats keeping the White House by an Electoral College margin of 304-190.
The Donald Trump nomination is already having a disastrous impact on the presidential map for Republicans. Trump claims that he is bringing millions of people into the Republican Party, but polling numbers and voter registration data suggest that he is driving people to register for Hillary Clinton in the fall.
The initial Electoral College projection is valuable because it provides a sense of the starting point for the general election campaign. However, this map is only a projection. The map can shift. Fortunes can change. While Democrats should be excited by what they see, the map should not deter them from working hard to make sure that they keep the White House and do their best to retake Congress in November.
Jason is the managing editor. He is also a White House Press Pool and a Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association