During an interview on CNN, Nate Silver gave Hillary Clinton a 75% chance of being elected to be the nation’s next president.
STELTER: So, you know what I have to ask you before we go. As we look to the fall, what are Trump’s chances?
SILVER: So, we always make things probabilistically. If you look at betting markets, they say that Trump has about a 25 percent chance.
I think that’s sensible. If you held the election today, there’s enough polling to know that today Clinton would very probably win. But you can have recessions. You can have terror attacks. Clinton is not a very popular candidate herself.
Maybe Trump is a black swan. So, I don’t know. I put Trump’s chances of becoming president at 25 percent, much higher today than a year ago I would have given a chance to win the nomination.
Republicans and Democrats should both have the same reaction to Silver’s odds. So there’s a chance that Trump could actually win?
Yes, Donald J. Trump could become the next President Of The United States. Demographics, voting patterns, and approval ratings all weigh solidly against him winning, but with only two candidates on the ballot, Trump does have a chance.
Democrats should not be taking anything for granted. Republicans understand that the only way that they will be able to win is to run a negative campaign against Hillary Clinton that is likely to go beyond anything that the country has ever seen before.
The biggest problem that Republicans have is that there is no better motivator for getting Democrats out to the polls than Donald Trump. The presumptive nominee is pushing all of the right buttons to get key Democratic constituencies out to vote against him.
As long as Democrats don’t make the same mistake that Trump’s Republican primary opponents did by writing him off, the odds are in their favor. However, there is work to be done. Democrats must do what Republicans didn’t and take Trump seriously enough to bury him at the polls in November.
Mr. Easley is the founder/managing editor and Senior White House and Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association