The Republican Party may have to spend precious resources defending Texas as Donald Trump is holding a single digit lead over Hillary Clinton in the Lone Star State.
A new University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll revealed a potential looming disaster for the GOP:
A University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll shows Donald Trump leading Hillary Clinton by a margin of 41 percent to 33 percent in a head-to-head trial ballot match-up in Texas, with 19 percent preferring someone else, and 8 percent saying that they don’t yet know who they would vote for.
The margin between the two major candidates changed only slightly when Libertarian candidate Gary Johnston was included. In that three-way match-up, the results showed Trump at 39 percent, Clinton at 32 percent and Johnson at 7 percent.
Donald Trump only has a 53% favorable rating with Republicans in Texas. A majority of Republicans in the state who claimed to be supporting Trump (55%) said that their vote was really a vote against Hillary. Only 45% of Texas Republicans are voting in support of Trump.
Mitt Romney won Texas by 16 points but lost the national popular vote by 4 points in 2012. If Donald Trump only wins Texas by single digits, it would signal a double-digit popular vote loss nationally. If Texas does stay within single digits, it will be a sign that a national landslide may be coming for Democrats.
Trump not blowing Clinton out in Texas is a bad sign for Republicans. If Trump can’t run up big margins in the dark red GOP strongholds, he will have no chance of competing in swing states or flipping blue states into the Republican column.
No Democratic presidential candidate has been within single digits in Texas since Bill Clinton lost the state to Bob Dole 48%-43% in 1996.
Two June polls show Clinton within single digits of Trump in Texas. If Trump can’t win big in Texas, he will have no shot at winning the White House in November.
Mr. Easley is the founder/managing editor and Senior White House and Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association