The Democratic surge against Trump is growing even bigger as a new poll shows Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump 74%-16% with Latinos.
A new poll conducted by Latino Decisions and commissioned by America’s Voice found:
In Head-to-Head Matchup, Hillary Clinton Favored By 74%-16% Margin Over Donald Trump: When asked about the head-to-head matchup between the parties’ two presumptive presidential nominees, Latino voters nationwide prefer Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump by a 74%-16% margin. This puts Trump on track to underperform Mitt Romney’s historically poor performance among Latino voters in 2012, when Latinos supported President Obama by a 75%-23% margin over Romney, according to Latino Decisions 2012 Election Eve polling (71%-27% in media-sponsored exit polls). Of note, 33% of self-identified Latino Republican respondents said they were likely to back Hillary Clinton instead of Donald Trump. When asked about candidate favorability, 78% of Latino voters have an unfavorable opinion of Donald Trump, including 69% who have a “very unfavorable” opinion. This compares to just 17% who view Trump as “very” (8%) or “somewhat” (9%) favorable – meaning that his net favorability is underwater by 61 percentage points. Comparatively, Hillary Clinton has a positive favorability rating among Latino voters in the new poll at a 63%-32% margin.
The Republican Brand with Latino Voters is Deeply Damaged and Democratic Candidates are Favored by 4:1 Margins: More than 3-of-4 Latino voters (77%) say the Republican Party “doesn’t care too much about Latinos” (41%) or that the GOP is “sometimes hostile towards Latinos” (36%), while just 13% say the Republican Party “truly cares about the Latino community.” Of note, 43% of self-identified Latino Republican respondents say their own party is indifferent or hostile to Latinos. When Latino voters are asked if the GOP has, in recent years, become more welcoming to Latinos, more hostile to Latinos, or has not really changed, 46% say the Republican Party has become more hostile, 11% say the Republican Party has become more welcoming; and 36% say no change. Perhaps unsurprisingly in light of the overall tarnished Republican brand, Latino voters prefer generic Democratic candidates over generic Republican candidates by approximately 4:1 margins in both House and Senate contests (72%-16% in House contests nationwide and 71%-19% in Senate contests nationwide).
The polling is revealing that Republicans don’t just have a Donald Trump problem. The GOP also has a brand problem. When Latino voters are expressing the beliefs that the Republican Party doesn’t care about them, and that Republicans are hostile towards them, it suggests an issue that goes much deeper than one presidential nominee.
Donald Trump is a symptom of a much larger disease. One-third of self-identified Latino Republicans said that they would support Hillary Clinton over Trump. There aren’t enough while male voters in the electorate to make up for the overwhelming numbers of other voters who are fleeing Trump.
The structural elements of this election are not moving in Trump’s direction. Latino voters have been alienated by the Republican Party and Trump. Hillary Clinton and Democrats have done an outstanding job of making it clear that Latinos are welcome, and their voices are heard in the Democratic Party.
Contrary to Trump’s claims, Latinos don’t love him. In fact, they are close to hating the presumptive GOP nominee. Republicans are fighting a demographic war that they can’t win. With each poll, it is clear that Donald Trump may be swept into the dustbin of history as Latino voters reject his bigoted politics of yesteryear.
Mr. Easley is the founder/managing editor and Senior White House and Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association