Don’t Panic Democrats, One Chart Shows Why Trump’s Poll Lead Is No Big Deal

Last updated on July 17th, 2023 at 07:15 pm

Republicans are excited about a series of new polls that show Donald Trump leading Hillary Clinton after the GOP convention, but Mitt Romney had the same numbers at the same point during the 2012 election.

A new CBS Poll has Trump leading Clinton 44%-43%. A new CNN poll has Trump leading 48%-45%, and a Morning Consult poll has Trump up 44%-40%.

The problem for Republicans is that Mitt Romney got the same bounce after the 2012 Republican convention.

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One chart tells the story:

Shortly after the Republican convention, Mitt Romney got a bounce that erased President Obama’s 3-4 point lead in 2012. There was talk of how Romney could win, but all that chatter vanished by November, as President Obama cruised to reelection.

In 2016, Donald Trump got a bounce that has pulled him even with Hillary Clinton. There is talk of how Trump really could win, but after the Democratic convention, it is likely that Clinton will retake her lead, and the Trump bounce will vanish.

The point is that there is no reason for Democrats to panic. The Democratic convention will reset the polling numbers likely to back to where they were before the convention. The post-convention bounce gives the media a horse race to hype, but the reality is that the next will chance to shift the polls won’t come until the first presidential debate.

Anyone who follows elections closely has seen this movie before, and the squeal to the Democrats is likely to a poll bounce and lead for Hillary Clinton.

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