Republicans are excited about a series of new polls that show Donald Trump leading Hillary Clinton after the GOP convention, but Mitt Romney had the same numbers at the same point during the 2012 election.
The problem for Republicans is that Mitt Romney got the same bounce after the 2012 Republican convention.
One chart tells the story:
Before Dems totally freak out, note that polling right now is nearly identical to Romney-post convention 2012. pic.twitter.com/0LTofJrZOn
— Ben White (@morningmoneyben) July 25, 2016
Shortly after the Republican convention, Mitt Romney got a bounce that erased President Obama’s 3-4 point lead in 2012. There was talk of how Romney could win, but all that chatter vanished by November, as President Obama cruised to reelection.
In 2016, Donald Trump got a bounce that has pulled him even with Hillary Clinton. There is talk of how Trump really could win, but after the Democratic convention, it is likely that Clinton will retake her lead, and the Trump bounce will vanish.
The point is that there is no reason for Democrats to panic. The Democratic convention will reset the polling numbers likely to back to where they were before the convention. The post-convention bounce gives the media a horse race to hype, but the reality is that the next will chance to shift the polls won’t come until the first presidential debate.
Anyone who follows elections closely has seen this movie before, and the squeal to the Democrats is likely to a poll bounce and lead for Hillary Clinton.
Mr. Easley is the founder/managing editor and Senior White House and Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association