A new poll of Missouri shows real trouble brewing for Republicans as Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by a single point in a state that Mitt Romney won by ten points in 2012.
Mason-Dixon Polling found that Trump is losing in a state that President Obama lost in 2008 and 2012. Technically, the results are a statistical tie, but Trump is underperforming Romney by eleven points in a state that Republicans thought they could count on in November. The two main issues for Trump in Missouri are that he is less popular than Clinton in the state and that he is getting less Republican support than Clinton is getting Democratic support.
While Clinton is a net (-3) favorable/unfavorable split (42%/45%), Donald Trump is a net (-18) favorable/unfavorable split (33%-51%). Democrats are more unified around Clinton (87%) than Republicans are around Trump (79%). Hillary Clinton is getting 97% of the African-American vote to Trump’s 1%, and Trump is only leading Clinton by 8 points with Independents.
Republicans may have a big problem in Missouri because the state does not like Donald Trump, and the state’s GOP voters are not rallying around him. The poll was taken after the Republican convention ended, and before the Democratic convention started, so these results should have reflected a positive Trump bounce in Missouri. Instead, Trump is losing a state that he should be winning.
The national polls are going to be influenced by the conventions for at least another week, but the state-level polling is suggesting the outlines of an election where Donald Trump may do worse than Mitt Romney. Democrats are surging, and building the foundation for success in November. The stage is being set for Republicans facing a world of hurt on Election Day.
Mr. Easley is the founder/managing editor and Senior White House and Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA.Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association