A new poll of Latino voters in Florida spells trouble for Donald Trump’s hopes of carrying the Sunshine State in November.
According to the Latino Voice survey, less than 13 percent of Latinos plan to vote for the Republican nominee in November. This is a dismal number in a state where nearly 2 million Hispanic voters make up 18 percent of the total electorate.
Latino Voice Florida Poll: Trump at 12.9% support among Hispanic voters (Romney had 39% in Florida). https://t.co/8xk2IE9C2j
— Benchmark Politics (@benchmarkpol) August 3, 2016
If these numbers hold – and there is no reason to think they wouldn’t – Trump is likely to suffer a huge defeat in a state he must win to become president. According to FiveThirtyEight, Florida is the state most likely to decide the election.
If previous Republican nominees had this level of support among Hispanic voters, the results wouldn’t be anywhere near as close as they have been in recent years. In fact, Florida wouldn’t have even been a contest.
Trump at 13% among FL Latinos! https://t.co/sGQmhy7Ly0
Had Romney gotten that—he’d have lost FL by 9% instead of 1%
Bush ’04? -10%, not +3%
— Taniel (@Taniel) August 3, 2016
Mitt Romney would have lost the Sunshine State by an additional eight points in 2012 if his number’s looked like Trump’s. George W. Bush would’ve been defeated in the state by 10 points in 2004 – and, in the process, John Kerry would’ve won the presidency.
As Univision reported today, “Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump appears to be facing an insurmountable wall among Latino voters in the key swing state of Florida.”
Looks like Donald Trump isn’t the only one who wants to build a wall. Except, unlike his, this one is likely to be effective.