Hillary Clinton has opened up big leads in three states that Republicans hoped would be battlegrounds for Donald Trump in November.
A new poll conducted for The Detroit News and WDIV-TV found that Clinton has opened up a 9 point lead over Trump (41%-32%) with Gary Johnson and Jill Stein included in the polling. Trump is viewed as unqualified to be president by 61% of Michigan voters, and 67% of women voters. Clinton leads by 21 points with women. Trump’s unfavorable rating has stayed at 59% in the state, while Clinton’s unfavorables have dropped to 53%.
In Pennsylvania, the news is worse for Trump. A new Franklin and Marshall College Poll found Hillary Clinton opening up an 11 point lead in the Keystone State, “Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump 49% to 38% among likely voters. The Democratic convention appeared to benefit Secretary Clinton more than the Republican convention benefitted Mr. Trump. Nearly two in three (62%) of those who watched the Democratic convention reported being more likely to vote for Secretary Clinton, while only two in five (40%) of those who watched the Republican convention said they were more likely to vote for Mr. Trump. More voters believe Secretary Clinton rather than Mr. Trump has the experience to be president and is better prepared to handle foreign policy issues, although they are evenly divided on which candidate is more honest and trustworthy and which candidate has the ability to fix the country’s economic problems.”
The numbers in Pennsylvania look good compared to what is happening to Trump in New Hampshire. A new WBUR/MassINC poll found that the contest has gone from a 44%-42% Clinton lead in May to a 15 point Clinton lead today (47%-32%), “Beyond Clinton’s lead over Trump, the conventions also had an impact on how voters perceived the candidates. Compared to the last survey in May, Clinton’s unfavorable rating has dropped a dramatic 13 points, from 58% to 45%. Meanwhile, Trump’s unfavorable rating remained essentially unchanged from 58% to 60%. Additionally, 55% of respondents said that Clinton came out of the convention looking stronger while 22% said weaker. For Trump, 39% of voters said he looked stronger while 38% said weaker.”
The state level polling shows some consistent problems for Trump. His negative ratings are not getting better. Voters view him as unqualified to be president, and Hillary Clinton’s positive campaign message is going over well with voters.
The Trump campaign lacks both the infrastructure and candidate discipline that would be needed to turn these numbers around. Trump’s next big chance to make an impact with voters will be at the first presidential debate in September. The Republican convention seemed to have hurt Trump with voters and reaffirmed the perception that he is unqualified to be president.
Democrats need to work harder and keep doing what they are doing, but it is clear that Hillary Clinton is currently on the right path to victory in November.