Last updated on July 17th, 2023 at 07:20 pm
While Donald Trump continues to try to reboot his campaign on a daily basis, Hillary Clinton is building a huge lead as a new Monmouth University poll shows Clinton leading Trump in a four-way presidential race 50%-37%.
Trump’s Detriot economic speech contained the usual mix of conspiracy theories and outright lies that have defined the Republican nominee’s campaign. As he was trying his best to sound serious, a new poll showed that Hillary Clinton now tops 50% support in polling that includes both Libertarian Gary Johnson and the Green Party’s Jill Stein.
According to the Monmouth University Poll:
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Currently, 46% of registered voters support Clinton and 34% back Trump, with 7% supporting Libertarian Gary Johnson, and 2% backing Jill Stein of the Green Party. Support among likely voters stands at 50% Clinton, 37% Trump, 7% Johnson, and 2% Stein. In a poll taken days before the Republican convention in mid-July, Clinton held a narrow 43% to 40% lead among registered voters and a 45% to 43% lead among likely voters.
Clinton has solidified support among her partisan base since the conventions while Trump struggles to lock in his. More than 9-in-10 Democrats (92%) say they will vote for Clinton, up from 88% in July and 85% in June. Just 79% of Republicans are backing Trump, which is virtually unchanged from prior polls (81% in July and 79% in June).
Independents are divided between Trump (32%) and Clinton (30%). In the Monmouth poll taken before the two parties’ conventions Trump held a 40% to 31% lead among this group. Johnson the Libertarian has picked up independent voter support in the past month, now at 16% (up from 9%) with this group, while the Green Party’s Stein has remained stable at 4% (compared to 3% last month).
Importantly, Clinton continues to maintain a lead in the swing states – ten states that were decided by less than seven points in the 2012 election. She holds a 42% to 34% edge over Trump in these states, which is similar to her 46% to 39% swing state lead last month.
What is telling is that Clinton has opening up a big lead on Trump even with the third party candidates included in the polling. Hillary Clinton’s campaign is quietly building a massive turnout operation and campaign apparatus in the battleground states. What Trump’s Detroit speech revealed was a directionless campaign that is still trying to unify the Republican Party.
Democrats are already unified in nearly universal support of Hillary Clinton. While Donald Trump is mired in the quicksand of his own problems, Hillary Clinton continues to build her coalition. Trump is past the point where big speeches can help him reverse the polling. Trump spent more than a year defining himself as unelectable. A few big speeches aren’t going to change what voters have already decided.
The numbers may shift a tad, but the next opportunity for Trump to change perceptions and gain ground on Clinton likely won’t come until the first presidential debate in September.
Democrats have come home to Hillary Clinton, as signs grow that a big blue wave might be in the works for November.
Jason is the managing editor. He is also a White House Press Pool and a Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association
