Democrats have already reached an important marker in the battle to take back the Senate. Democratic candidates now lead enough states to take back the Senate from Mitch McConnell and the Republican Party.
FiveThirtyEight rounded up the Senate numbers:
Six of the eight Republican candidates for Senate are polling worse than they were before the conventions. Nothing has changed in Florida, according to the polls. And Sen. Rob Portman in Ohio is the only Republican whose fortunes have improved. (That may be partially because he has a massive fundraising edge over his Democratic opponent, Ted Strickland.) The biggest shifts have been in Illinois, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania, and in the latter two, the leader flipped.
Democrats now lead in enough states to take back the Senate — so long as Clinton holds on to her large lead. If the favorites in the polls win, the Democrats would flip and pick up the seats in Illinois, Indiana, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Republicans would pick up Nevada and hold onto Florida, North Carolina and Ohio. Of course, many of these races are close, and there’s plenty of time before Election Day. The fight for the Senate isn’t over by a long shot. Republicans and Trump — or Republicans without Trump — could rebound.
Democrats and their supporters have vital information before the fall campaign has officially kicked off. The Democrats know where they are doing well. They know where to target their efforts. Unlike Republicans, Democrats don’t have a nominee that is forcing them waste time cleaning up scandal after scandal. As long as Hillary Clinton continues to roll along in the presidential race, Democrats can focus on objectives like taking back the Senate making big gains in the House.
In wave years, the data tends to show signs of movement months in advance. The data suggested the potential big wave wins in 2006, 2008, 2010, and 2014. The ripples are starting to build for a potential Democratic wave. It is up to the Democratic Party and their supporters to turn those ripples into a tidal wave of blue victories in November.
As the numbers stand currently, the door is open for Democrats to ditch Majority Leader Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and take back control of the Senate.
Mr. Easley is the founder/managing editor and Senior White House and Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association