A new series of polls in every state show Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by a point in Texas and trailing the Republican nominee by just two points in Mississippi.
Here are the results of The Washington Post/Survey Monkey 50 State Poll of Texas:
The same polling also shows Clinton tied with Trump in Arizona and Georgia. If Donald Trump loses any of these four red states, Hillary Clinton will win the presidential election. If Trump loses Texas, it will be a complete disaster for the Republican Party.
Of the four red state contests, Trump is most likely to win Mississippi, but his recent rally in the state makes a lot more sense given the context of this poll. The two most likely states that Clinton could pick up are Arizona and Georgia. Trump has angered and alienated Latino voters to such a degree that Arizona is in play, while demographic shifts are turning Georgia into a plum target for a potential Democratic pickup.
Donald Trump needs to flip blue states, but the 50 state map shows that the Republican nominee is such a weak candidate that he is making solidly Republican states competitive. Candidates like Donald Trump are the ones who need superior data and get out the vote operations to win on Election Day, but Trump has turned his nose up at both.
Because of the deep polarization of the electorate, there will be some tightening in the polls, but what is happening beneath the surface at the state level reveals that conditions are ripe for a big Democratic victory in November.
Nothing is settled yet, but if Democrats work hard over the next 60+ days, they may be richly rewarded in November.
Mr. Easley is the founder/managing editor and Senior White House and Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association