Trump supporters point to a handful of recent national and swing state polls that show a tightening race between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump as evidence that they have the momentum in the presidential race.
A new poll out of the Keystone State this weekend shows that their supposed momentum may have just ran into a blue, Pennsylvania-sized wall.
According to a Muhlenberg College/Morning Call poll released on Saturday, Clinton is leading Trump in a head-to-head match-up in the must-win state by 9 points – 47 to 38 percent. In a contest that includes third-party candidates Gary Johnson and Jill Stein, the Democratic nominee’s advantage is still a commanding eight points – 40 to 32 percent.
The bottom line is that Trump may have improved in other states, like Ohio and Iowa, but Clinton’s built-in Electoral College advantage continues to give her a cushion. In other words, she had given herself enough breathing room to withstand a week of bad media coverage.
The poll out of Pennsylvania, a state that Trump likely needs to win to become president – especially given that he is underperforming in key battleground states like Virginia, New Hampshire, and Colorado – only underscores this electoral advantage for Democrats.
Trump can carry Iowa, Ohio and even Florida (although a poll out Monday showed him losing to Clinton by a point in the Sunshine State), where his numbers have shown the most improvement recently, and still lose the presidency because, as of today, Clinton is ahead in states that total 273 electoral votes – enough to give her the White House.
The GOP rightly admits that their best (some would say only) chance of recapturing the White House this year is by picking off Pennsylvania, a state that has been carried by a Democrat in every election since 1988. Without the state’s 20 electoral votes, Trump’s path to 270 is daunting, to say the least.
The latest poll out of Pennsylvania suggests that their hope of stealing the Keystone State is fading with 50 days until Election Day.
It appears the blue wall is still alive and well for Democrats.
Sean Colarossi currently resides in Cleveland, Ohio. He earned his Bachelor of Arts degree in Journalism from the University of Massachusetts Amherst and was an organizing fellow for both of President Obama’s presidential campaigns. He also worked with Planned Parenthood as an Affordable Care Act Outreach Organizer in 2014, helping northeast Ohio residents obtain health insurance coverage.