Two new polls suggest that two must-win states for Donald Trump (North Carolina and Pennsylvania) may be slipping away from the Republican nominee.
In the latest Elon University poll of North Carolina, Hillary Clinton has turned what was a tie in the Tar Heel State into a 5.5% lead:
Hillary Clinton is getting 98% of the African-American vote in the state, and she has seen her support among women grow from 53% to 61%. As with polling in other states, the size of the gender gap appears to be directly related to Hillary Clinton’s margin over Trump. Clinton has five percent more support with women than Trump does with men, and her lead in the state is 5.5%
Pennsylvania has long been viewed as a must win for Donald Trump, but the new Franklin and Marshall College poll shows that Clinton’s lead has nearly doubled. Clinton has gone from a five point 45%-40% lead over Trump in August to a nine-point 47%-38% lead by the end of September. More likely Democratic voters (78%) support Hillary Clinton than likely Republican voters (71%) support Donald Trump. Trump is leading among those without a college degree (46% to 39%), but he is losing to Clinton with college-educated white voters (54% to 32%), white men (40% to 46%), and white women (39% to 47%).
Three different polls in the past two days have shown Hillary Clinton leading North Carolina. Since March of 2016, Trump has led in one poll of Pennsylvania. At some point, the reality will have to set in among Republicans and the media that Pennsylvania may not be an option for Donald Trump.
A Clinton victory in North Carolina (15 votes) would negate a potential Trump win in Ohio (18 electoral votes). The first presidential debate and Trump’s behavior in the week following have done severe damage to the Republican Party. Hillary Clinton’s leads are growing in the states that matter most, as the swing states are currently swinging away from Donald Trump.
Mr. Easley is the managing editor. He is also a White House Press Pool and a Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association