Two new polls of Pennsylvania released today reveal that the Democratic candidate is leading by 9-10 points, but most telling is that Clinton is being powered by white women who are rejecting Trump’s candidacy.
After a Franklin and Marshall College poll showed Hillary Clinton leading Pennsylvania by nine points, a Monmouth University poll revealed that Clinton is leading the state by ten. Clinton has crossed the important fifty percent support threshold and now leads Trump 50%-40% with 5% support for Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson, and 2% for the Green Party’s Jill Stein.
According to Monmouth University, “The Republican nominee’s support has slipped among white voters in the Keystone State, who are now divided 46% for Clinton and 45% for Trump. In August, they gave Trump a 48% to 39% edge. This is mainly driven by a swing among white women – who currently support Clinton by a 55% to 35% margin. Just over a month ago, they were divided at 46% for Clinton and 45% for Trump. White men continue to back Trump – 57% to 35% for Clinton – compared with 50% to 32% in late August.”
The Clinton campaign has also been blanketing the Keystone State airwaves with advertising.
Clinton is dominating Trump when it comes to advertising in the swing states, but her campaign and supporters are hammering Trump in Pennsylvania:
Team Clinton vs. Team Trump in ad spending for just *this* week.
Only state where Team Trump has edge is in VA pic.twitter.com/GeJmvL7MUd
— Mark Murray (@mmurraypolitics) October 4, 2016
Pollsters and pundits who are trying to figure out the 2016 election have been looking in the wrong place. It isn’t millennials or Hispanics alone that will swing the election. The deciding group of voters will be white women. In recent polling, there seems to be a relationship between Clinton’s support from white women and her overall lead.
It is surprising that male-dominated media and pundit class would overlook the role of women in determining the outcome of the presidential election. In 2012 the gender gap was the largest in history with Obama winning with women by 12 points and Romney winning with men by 8 points. In 2016, the gender gap has gotten even bigger. Trump has performed the same or better than Romney with white men, but he is being blown out by 20 points or more in swing states like Pennsylvania with white women.
Women were already the heart and soul of the Democratic Party before 2016, but Donald Trump has shrunk the Republican tent by chasing women out of the party through his misogyny, sexism, and attitudes towards women.
If you want to know what is really going on in a state or national poll, follow the movement of white women, because they will decide the outcome of the presidential election in several key swing states.
Jason is the managing editor. He is also a White House Press Pool and a Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association