The new ABC News/Washington Post has found that Donald Trump is threatening to depress Republican turnout by nearly 20 points as poll indicators point to a building Democratic wave.
According to the poll, “The previous ABC/Post poll found a sharp 12-point decline in enthusiasm for Trump among his supporters, almost exclusively among those who’d preferred a different GOP nominee. Intended participation now has followed: The share of registered Republicans who are likely to vote is down 7 points since mid-October.”
An equally large problem for Republicans is that Trump’s support is in collapse with white voters. Clinton leads Trump with men 44%-41%. She has gained 12 points with non-college educated white women and has opened up a 32 point lead with college-educated white women. Trump leads Clinton with white voters by just 4 points, 47%-43%. Mitt Romney carried these voters by 20 points in 2012.
Donald Trump’s election rigging claims and the way he has attacked the women who are accusing him of sexual assault have backfired and depressed Republican turnout.
The numbers in the ABC News/Washington Post poll are more concrete because they aren’t based on mythic enthusiasm. It is a straight up question of whether or not people are going to vote.
Republicans have gone from being unhappy about, but voting for Trump, to deciding to stay home and not vote. If Republicans don’t show up, and early voting statistics in key swing states indicate that they aren’t, there will be a Democratic wave in November. The Republican hopes of hanging on to Congress depend on their voters showing up.
The wave won’t be revealed until the election results come in on November 8, but the chances of Democrats winning the White House, reclaiming the Senate and making large gains in the House have never looked better in 2016.
Mr. Easley is the founder/managing editor and Senior White House and Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association