According to the CBS News Battleground Tracker, reliably Republican Texas is a now a battleground state as Donald Trump’s lead of three points is within the poll’s margin of error.
Trump leads Clinton 46%-43% in Texas. The Republican nominee’s lead is down a point from a poll of the state released nine days ago.
According to CBS News, what is happening in Texas is a case of Donald Trump being the worst performing Republican nominee in decades:
Clinton is doing about as well with key groups as President Obama did in 2008, but Trump is under-performing the Republican benchmarks by roughly ten points among white men, white women, and college whites in particular. Many of those not with Trump are unsure or voting third-party rather than Clinton.
In 2008 then-candidate Obama lost white men in Texas by more than fifty points and Clinton is down 35 points today. That’s still a big gap, but the sheer number of voters that represents is part of the reason for the difference in the race. Meanwhile, Hispanics in Texas, who are supporting Clinton, say they feel very motivated to vote this year.
Hillary Clinton may not have enough time to close the deal and turn Texas blue, but what once looked like an easy double-digit win for Republicans, dropped to a high single digit potential win to now, Republicans may be lucky to squeak out a win in the state that is their biggest electoral college prize.
If Trump’s Texas support continues to erode at its current pace, he will go into election day with a one point lead over Clinton. Turnout in Texas could be essential for Republicans to keep the state from flipping to Hillary Clinton. If turnout drops significantly, the door will be open for Hillary Clinton and her extremely motivated Texas Democrats to turn the state blue.
The once unfathomable in close to becoming a reality. Hillary Clinton could win in Texas.
Mr. Easley is the founder/managing editor and Senior White House and Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA.Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association