The Politicus Presidential Projection Map For November 3, 2016

Here are the projection maps for the best and most likely scenarios for Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump on election day.

All maps created at 270toWin:

The baseline map:

baseline-2016-map

As you can see, Democrats will begin election night with 258 of the needed 270 electoral college votes in their column. A Clinton win in North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, or a combination of Nevada and Wisconsin are the easiest and most direct ways over the top for the Democratic nominee.

Even with a tightening in the polling, Trump remains in a difficult electoral college position.

Here is the best case scenario currently for Donald Trump:

clinton-trump-trump-best-case-electoral-college

Even if Trump wins Florida, New Hampshire, Ohio, Iowa, Utah, and Arizona, he will still lose the election to Hillary Clinton 290-247.

Here is the best case scenario for Hillary Clinton:

clinton-trump-clinton-best-case-electoral-college

The best case scenario for Clinton gives her wins in the states where she has big early voting leads (North Carolina, Florida, and Nevada) plus Ohio and New Hampshire. This is the probable ceiling (341) on Clinton’s electoral vote total.

Here is the most likely outcome as of November 3, 2016:

clinton-trump-most-likely-electoral-college

The most likely outcome map features Clinton finishing with 323 electoral college votes as Trump wins Ohio and Iowa, while Clinton takes Florida and North Carolina. Clinton can lose Florida and still win the election. If Trump loses Florida and North Carolina without picking up either Pennsylvania or Michigan and Wisconsin, it’s likely lights out for the GOP nominee.

Note: These projections take into account polling averages, early voting statistics, and current polls. They are subject to change and will be updated daily through election day.