New polling shows that newly registered and voters who sat out the 2012 election are breaking strongly for Hillary Clinton in North Carolina, Florida, and Pennsylvania.
The Upshot analyzed the numbers, and they show that new and missing white voters aren’t going to help Trump:
According to the data, it’s Mrs. Clinton — not Mr. Trump — who stands to gain from a surge of new voters.
Mrs. Clinton has a considerable lead over Mr. Trump among newly registered voters in Pennsylvania, Florida and North Carolina combined, 47 percent to 31 percent.
Mrs. Clinton’s lead among newly registered voters isn’t simply about an influx of voters who were previously ineligible, either. She leads among every age group of new voters, giving her a similar margin of 45 to 33 among newly registered voters who weren’t eligible in 2012.
Trump lead with registered white voters who didn’t vote in 2012 is just 40%-34% over Clinton, which won’t be enough to offset the gender gap and the Democrat’s lead with minority voters.
The idea that there are millions of new voters flocking into the Republican Party because of Trump was a myth, and the “missing white voters” that Trump and Republicans thought could power him to victory in a state like Pennsylvania haven’t materialized.
The surge of newly registered voters that Trump predicted did happen….for Hillary Clinton.
There is no wave of angry white voters coming to rescue Trump. The idea that millions of new voters are voting for the GOP this year was another lie sold to Republicans by Donald Trump.
Instead, the new white voters are supporting Hillary Clinton.
Mr. Easley is the founder/managing editor and Senior White House and Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association