Last updated on July 17th, 2023 at 09:28 pm
Our map has seen a few changes since yesterday, so here are the projection maps for the best and most likely scenarios for Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump on election day as of November 4, 2016
The baseline map:
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Democrats are still set to begin election night favored to win 258 electoral votes. New polling in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Virginia all confirms Clinton’s leads in those swing states. Trump has a high single digit lead in deep red Texas.
Another day has ticked by, and it appears that Trump has made no inroads with Hillary Clinton’s blue state firewall.
Here is the best case scenario currently for Donald Trump:
Even if Trump wins Florida, New Hampshire, Ohio, Iowa, Utah, Arizona, and Georgia, he will still lose the election to Hillary Clinton 290-247.
What has changed in the race is that Donald Trump clearly has a Georgia problem. A new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll has Trump up by a single point, 45%-44%, the Peach State. If Trump loses Georgia, his electoral vote total will drop to 231, and things could start to get out of hand for Republicans.
The closeness of contest in Georgia changes the best case scenario for Hillary Clinton:
Clinton has maintained her big early vote leads in North Carolina, Nevada, and Florida. In Florida, she has taken the lead over Trump in total ballots cast. The big change from yesterday is that if Clinton wins the above-mentioned three states along with Georgia, New Hampshire and splitting the electoral votes in Maine and Nebraska brings her electoral college total to 355.
Here is the most likely scenario for election day:
The most likely scenario remains that Trump wins Iowa and Ohio. Clinton wins North Carolina and New Hampshire. I believe Clinton is a slight favorite to win Florida, but if she loses Florida, her electoral vote total will drop from 321 to 292, which is still more than enough to be the next president. 290ish is looking more and more like Hillary Clinton’s electoral college floor. Her best case scenario is an electoral college win of 350+.
The polling, polling averages, and early voting data still all show a path that requires a series of upsets for Donald Trump to win the White House. One upset win in a state is possible. Three or four are not likely.
Hillary Clinton remains the favorite to win the White House on Tuesday.
Note: These projections take into account polling averages, early voting statistics, and current polls. They are subject to change and will be updated daily through election day.
Jason is the managing editor. He is also a White House Press Pool and a Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association
