The Politicus Presidential Projection Map For November 6, 2016

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A state that was once thought to be safely in the Trump column is now in play in the Politicus Presidential Projection Map for November 6, 2016.

The baseline map:

baseline-2016-map

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Democrats are still set to begin election night favored to win 258 electoral votes. There is no sign that Trump is in a position to spring an upset in any of state the upper part of Hillary Clinton’s blue wall. Clinton remains solid in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Some have been misreading the Clinton campaign’s stops in Pennsylvania as a sign of danger for Democrats, but the strategy is to provide Donald Trump with no opening for an upset. The Hillary Clinton campaign isn’t taking anything for granted which is why they are spending so much time in a state like Pennsylvania. The baseline map heavily favors the Democrats, and absolutely nothing has changed.

Here is the best case scenario currently for Donald Trump:

clinton-trump-trump-best-case-electoral-college

Trump’s best case scenario is also unchanged. Even if Trump wins Florida, New Hampshire, Ohio, Iowa, Utah, Arizona, and Georgia, he will still lose the election to Hillary Clinton 290-247. The problem with the Trump campaign is that they seem to have no strategy for what blue states they are trying to flip. For instance, Trump was in Minnesota on Sunday. Donald Trump has little chance of winning Minnesota. Trump was campaigning in Nevada on Saturday, even after early voting suggests the state is already locked up for Hillary Clinton. Trump has done nothing to expand the map, and he needs the polling to all be wrong to have a path to the White House. Even in his best case scenario, Trump loses.

A new poll of Ohio makes the best case scenario for Clinton a little more plausible:

clinton-bast-case-electoral-map-november-4

This is the scenario where everything breaks Hillary Clinton’s way on election night. Early voting powers Hillary Clinton to wins in North Carolina, Nevada, and Florida. A new Columbus Dispatch poll shows Hillary Clinton up by a point in the Buckeye State. If Clinton wins Ohio, Florida, Nevada, and North Carolina, along with holding the blue wall, she will be in line to top President Obama’s electoral vote total of 332 in 2012. Obama’s electoral vote total of 365 in 2008 seems out of reach for Clinton. The best case scenario map for Clinton has her finishing with 355 electoral college votes.

Here is how important Ohio is. Hillary Clinton could lose every other swing state and still win the election if she wins Ohio:

clinton-map-ohio-only

The most likely scenario for election day is:

electoral-college-most-likely-scenario-november-4

The most likely scenario is that Hillary Clinton wins North Carolina and Nevada while keeping the Democratic blue states in her column. An Ohio win for Clinton along with holding on to the Democratic states would mean an election victory, even if she loses every other swing state. She seems to have Nevada locked up, so she isn’t going to lose every other swing state. Even some Republican pollsters are conceding that Clinton will win Florida.

A wild swing in turnout could change the election but based on what is known, and who has already voted, Hillary Clinton’s likely electoral college vote total is in the range of 290-320, with a ceiling to go much higher.

Note: These projections take into account polling averages, early voting statistics, and current polls. They are subject to change and will be updated daily through election day.