Fox News’s poll released on election eve shows support for Hillary Clinton doubling in three days to four points 48%-44%) over Donald Trump.
The Fox News Poll suggests that the election day results could mirror 2012:
Clinton is now winning among women by 12 points (52-40 percent), blacks by 85 (89-4 percent), Hispanics by 33 (63-30 percent), and voters under 30 by 16 (51-35 percent).That level of support is close to that of Barack Obama’s winning coalition against Mitt Romney in 2012, when he won among women by 11 points (55-44 percent), blacks by 87 (93-6 percent), Hispanics by 44 (71-27 percent), and young voters by 23 (60-37 percent).
Trump is favored among men by 5 points (48-43 percent), whites by 17 (54-37 percent), white evangelical Christians by 63 (78-15 percent), and whites without a college degree by 31 (61-30 percent). That nearly matches Romney’s performance. He won men by 7 points (52-45 percent), whites by 20 (59-39 percent), white evangelicals by 57 (78-21 percent), and whites without a degree by 26 (62-36 percent).
The Fox News polling has been a bit more generous to the Republican cause, but the findings in this poll match two other national polls that were released on Sunday. There appears not to be a hidden Trump vote, but one element that could through the popular vote totals off is the skyrocketing participation level among Latino voters. National polling has consistently under-represented the Latino vote. If Hillary Clinton’s popular vote margin ends up being larger than four points, the massive Latino turnout for her will be a big reason why.
As far as Trump is concerned, it is difficult to see how he goes beyond his ceiling of 42%-44% of the national vote. Trump has been stuck at the same level of support for his entire campaign, and to believe that this is going to change overnight is to buy into a fantasy.
Polling being within the margin of error, such as these national polls are, means that the Clinton/Trump contest could be a tie, or Clinton could be leading by as many as eight points. The two likely popular vote scenarios for Democrats remain a replay of 2012 ( a 4 point Obama win) or a replay of 2008 (a 7 point Obama win).
Even Fox News can’t find a way to spin the polling into a win for Trump on election eve.
Mr. Easley is the founder/managing editor and Senior White House and Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association