Democrats Led The Early Vote But Republicans Win Kansas Special Election 52%-47%

Democrat James Thompson has jumped out to a more than 5,600 vote lead early in the returns in the House special election in Kansas.

The early vote in Sedgewick County:

Results are coming in from Sedgwick and Barber counties with Thompson’s lead at 62%-37%.

Here is are the early results from Barber County:

Early results from Butler County:

Edwards County:

Complete results from Pawnee County:

Update: 8:58 PM ET: Thompson leads Estes 60%-38%.

Update: 9:04 PM ET Thompson leads Estes 55%-43%

Update: 9:28 PM ET: Thompson leads Estes 53%-45%

Update: 9:35 PM ET Thompson leads 51%-48% with half the estimated vote remaining to be counted.

Update: 9:41 PM ET: Thompson leads Estes 50%-49%.

Update: 10:01 PM ET: Estes has jumped ahead of Thompson 50%-48%.

Update: 10:05 PM ET Estes leads Thompson 51%-48

Update: 10:16 PM ET: The race has been called for Republican Estes 52%-46%.

Update: 10:48 PM ET: even though the race has been called, the margin has narrowed to 50%-49% Estes.

Update: With 90.3% of the vote in, the margin is 52%-47% in favor of Republican Estes.

MSNBC’s Steve Kornacki explained:

More from Steve Kornacki:

Harry Enten of 538 explains why Estes is likely to win:

KS-4 is a district that went for Trump by 27 points. Democrats are not expected to win this seat, but it looks like Republicans may have been right to be worried, as this contest could be much closer than anyone expected.

(This page will be updated, so please refresh for latest results.)