A new Quinnipiac University poll found that retirement age voters are abandoning Trump in droves, which could be great news for Democrats looking to take back Congress in 2018.
According to Quinnipiac University, “President Trump gets a negative 37 – 55 percent job approval rating, compared to a negative 36 – 58 percent approval in a May 10 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN- uh-pe-ack) University. Today, voters over 65 years old, divided in earlier surveys, now disapprove 53 – 42 percent. Trump has a negative 36 – 54 percent approval among independent voters, an improvement from his negative 29 – 63 percent two weeks ago.”
The reason why Trump being underwater with retirement age voters is such bad news for Republicans is that midterm turnout tends to smaller and it skews older. For the 2014 midterms, 37% of the electorate was over age 60, while just 12% was under age 30.
As Larry Sabato wrote, “One big difference between midterm and presidential electorates is that the midterm electorate skews older. On average, about 54% of the electorate was aged 45 or older in the most recent presidential elections, while an average of 64% of the midterm voters — nearly two-thirds — were 45 or older. Overall, 53% of the adult population is 45 or older, so older voters are significantly overrepresented in midterm elections. That’s a generic advantage for Republicans in midterms although, again, the overall political environment next year may be more important than the age of the participants.”
If the electorate is older in 2018, but also more anti-Trump, this will be nothing short of a disaster for Republicans.
If young people come out to vote in larger numbers, and the older electorate is anti-Trump, Republicans will be facing a bloodbath in 2018. The special election results in red states already have Republicans worried. If retirement age voters turn on Trump, it won’t just be a blue wave in 2018. It will be a tsunami of Democratic victories that will change control of all or part of Congress.