A new poll by JMC Analytics and Polling shows Republican Roy Moore’s support collapsing as Democrat Doug Jones has taken a 46%-42% lead in the Alabama Senate special election.
Roy Moore was a candidate with problems before the allegations about his illegal taste for underage girls surfaced.
According to the poll:
Roy Moore has minus (-22) drop in support among men and women. Moore has lost 16 of support with men, and six points of support among women. His support among evangelicals has dropped by eight points, and Jones’ support among non-evangelicals has increased by eight points. Undecided voters give Jones a 20 point edge, 53%-33%. The allegation that Roy Moore has sexually assaulted a 14-year-old girl, believe it or not, is not the only reason for the shift in his support, but does make voters less likely to support him among those who care about the allegations by a margin of 38%-33%. It is the group of voters who say the allegation makes no difference to them who are hurting Moore, as they only support him 51%-39%.
What should really frighten Republicans is that Trump decline in popularity is hurting Moore in Alabama. Donald Trump carried Alabama by 28 points in 2016, but his approval rating in dark red Alabama is only a net (+11) 52%-41%. Trump is declining even in the states that went big for him. The anti-incumbent, anti-Trump mood is influencing that Alabama Senate election. This result needs to be replicated in more polls, but Roy Moore is a bad candidate mired in scandal which has given Democrats a golden opportunity to stop the Trump agenda in the Senate by winning in Alabama.