A new poll shows Republican Roy Moore leading the Alabama Senate race, but he has lost nearly half of his support and has seen his lead shrink to six points over Democrat Doug Jones.
The Fox 10/Strategy Research poll has Moore leading Jones 49%-43% with 8% undecided. Moore lost 8% of his Republican support while Jones gained 3%.
The undecided voters hold the key to victory.
According to Fox 10, here is what they are thinking:
– 6% said the allegations made them MORE likely to vote for Roy Moore.
– 44% said the allegations made them LESS likely to vote for Roy Moore.
– 51% said they were undecided or that the allegations made no difference in their vote.
Putting the numbers aside for a moment, this poll shows Roy Moore slipping with voters in general, and specifically, Republicans. If the allegations continue to grow, Moore doesn’t have much support to spare. It already looks likely that undecided voters will determine the result in Alabama. If you would have asked Democrats three months ago if they would be happy to this close less than a month before Election Day, they would have been thrilled.
Donald Trump won Alabama by 28 points, so to see Roy Moore, who is as close to a Trump mini-me as any candidate has been, struggling in a deep red state should hearten Democrats. Roy Moore is not fit to be in the Senate, but the same argument didn’t stop Republicans from supporting Trump in 2016. The Alabama Senate election is winnable for Democrats, and Republicans who don’t want to have to expel Moore from the Senate will breathe a sigh of relief if they pull it off.