A new Pew study found that the Democratic base is growing while Republicans are losing identification with whites and male voters ahead of the midterm.
The Democratic base is growing
Women and college graduates increasingly align with Democratic Party, according to a new Pew study. The 19 point Democratic advantage with women is up 7 points since 2015 and the 22 point Democratic advantage with college graduates is up 14 points.
“As the 2018 midterm elections approach, women and especially college graduates have moved toward the Democratic Party. By contrast, the Republican Party’s advantage in leaned party identification among white voters without a college degree has never been greater, dating back more than two decades,” concluded a Pew study based on interviews with more than 10,000 registered voters in all of 2017.
Fifty-six percent of women identify as Democrats versus 37% who identify as Republican.
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Among college graduates, there is now a 22 point advantage for Democrats, as 58% identify as Democrats versus 36% who are Republicans. In 2015, there was an 8 point advantage, with 50% Democrat, 42% Republican. This is a 14 point shift in two years.
There is an 11 point advantage with white college graduates. Fifty-three percent of white college graduates are Democrats and 42% are Republicans. In 2015, white college grads were split 47%-47%.
Hillary Clinton defeated Trump in 2016 with women and college grads, but these groups have been expanded and mobilized by the Republican control of the federal government, and the repugnancy of the Trump presidency.
White people and men are shifting toward Democrats
It’s not just the women and the college educated who are shifting Democratic. There were also shifts among men and white people. Among men, 48% are Republican and 44% are Democrats. Republicans lost 4 points in their advantage with men since 2015.
Fifty-one percent of white people are Republican, 43% are Democratic. Among African Americans, 84% identify as Democrats and 8% as Republicans. Latinos are 63% percent Democratic and 28% GOP. Asian Americans are 65% Democrats and 27% Republicans.
Republicans are holding their advantage with high school only educated while by a 58%-35% margin, but their base is shrinking. The erosion and consolidation of the Republican base is an ongoing trend that predates Trump. The Trump presidency is the outcome of years long remaking of the Republican Party into the party whose pillars are older, white, male, rural, less educated, conservative voters.
What this means for 2018
The motivated and expanding Democratic base combined with Republican losses with white people and men are forming a perfect storm for 2018. There are multiple factors at play beyond the party that is out of power being more motivated for the midterm election. The political shift in the country is moving toward the center-left. As fewer people identify as Republicans, it leaves the GOP with a smaller base to court.
These shifts in the electorate help to explain why Republicans have increasingly focused their efforts on gerrymandering and voter suppression.
The 2018 midterm is looking like a blue wave, but beneath the surface, there is a longer-term trend that shows why the energy powering Democrats is so strong. The Republican Party is shrinking has transformed into a party that doesn’t represent the values and interests of a majority of Americans.
The 2016 election outcome was a jarring event, and what is being witnessed ahead of these midterms is political, social, and cultural equilibrium being restored.
