A new Emerson College poll has found that the Arizona House special election between Democrat Dr. Hiral Tipirneni and her Republican opponent Debbie Lesko is a statistical tie, with the Democrat holding a 1 point lead in a district that Trump carried by 21 points.
Here is the Emerson College press release:ecp-az-usc8-pr
There is another blue wave shocker brewing
Trump won the district 58%-37%, but his approval rating is currently underwater at a net (-2). Tipirneni is by far the more popular candidate. She has a (+20) net favorability rating (49%-29%) while Lesko is equal to Trump at a net (-2) 43%-45%. Education and immigration are the two most important issues to voters, with healthcare ranking third.
It isn’t a coincidence that Lesko favorability rating is mirroring Trump’s. The problem for Republican candidates is that Trump overshadows everything. The playbook of running with the president in districts that he carried was shattered by Conor Lamb’s win in Pennsylvania. A consistent trend is developing. Districts that Trump won are turning against him, and voters are taking out their anger with Trump and the Republican Congress on GOP candidates.
At some point, pollsters need to stop suggesting that Democrats are overperforming, and accept that this is the new political landscape. Voters, even in places where Trump won, are regretting their decision. Anyone who runs with Trump is voluntarily placing an anchor around their neck. The president is hurting Republicans, and if Democrats win another special House election in a deep red district, there will be a mass exodus of Republican candidates away from Trump, as GOP candidates will look to save themselves from the blue wave.