A new Quinnipiac Poll shows that Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke has pulled into a statistical tie with Sen. Ted Cruz in the Texas Senate race.
According to the Quinnipiac Poll:
– O’Rourke gets 87 – 9 percent support from Democrats and 51 – 37 percent backing from independent voters, as Republicans go to Cruz 88 – 6 percent;
– Men back Cruz 51 – 40 percent, while women go 47 percent for O’Rourke and 43 percent for Cruz;
– Voters 18 to 34 years old go Democratic 50 – 34 percent, while voters over 65 years old go Republican 50 – 43 percent;
– White voters back Cruz 59 – 34 percent, as O’Rourke leads 78 – 18 percent among black voters and 51 – 33 percent among Hispanic voters.
Cruz has a bad job approval rating (47%-45%) and is barely above water on favorability (46%-44%). O’Rourke has a (+14) net approval rating (30%-16%), but the majority of voters (53%) still don’t know enough about him to have an opinion.
Sen. Cruz is only at (+9) net on the question of whether voters like him as a person. 47 – 38 percent. Rep. O’Rourke is at a net (+27) on the question of liking him as a person.
Ted Cruz is in real trouble and could lose his seat
Cruz has always been unlikable and placed his national ambitions ahead of the needs of Texans. The enormous factor that Cruz has working in his favor is that it has been nearly impossible for a Democrat to win statewide in Texas for the last 20 years.
The disadvantage that Ted Cruz has is not popular himself and is running in a red state where Trump has struggled to keep his approval rating over 40%.
For O’Rourke to pull off what would be one of the biggest upsets in recent US political history, he will need the blue wave that is sweeping the rest of the country to give him a boost, Republican turnout to drop in the midterm, and voters that usually don’t vote in midterms to come out in record-setting numbers. In other words, a lot of things have to go right for O’Rourke to win, but so far, they are.
Ted Cruz is scared of Beto O’Rourke, and if the standard Republican playbook underperforms in Texas, even by a little bit, O’Rourke could show Democrats the Lone Star State is capable of going blue.
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Mr. Easley is the founder/managing editor and Senior White House and Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA.Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association