60 House Republican incumbents have been outraised by their Democrats opponents compared to five incumbent Democrats who are being outraised by their Republican challengers.
Dave Wasserman of The Cook Political Report discussed the ominous sign for Republicans, “The newest FEC filings spell danger for Republicans. In the most recent fundraising period, Democrats outraised Republicans in at least 60 GOP-held seats, more than twice the 23 seats Democrats need for a majority. Meanwhile, the reverse is true in just five Democratic-held seats. That’s going to force the NRCC and Congressional Leadership Fund to bail out a lot of cash-strapped GOP candidates come the fall.”
17 of the 60 contests are rated as toss-ups, or Democratic leans. This means that if all of these seats when Democrats have a fundraising advantage and a voter advantage flip, they only need to pick up eight more Republican-held across the entire country to take back the House.
Without Paul Ryan’s fundraising machine putting cash into these House races. House Republican incumbents are in big trouble. Ryan’s fundraising operation began warning incumbent House Republicans in March that they needed to raise their own money and take the Democratic momentum seriously or they were going to lose their seats.
Many incumbent House Republicans have never faced a Democratic wave before. They don’t understand what is about to hit them. Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) is raising insane amounts of money for Democratic candidates. Pelosi raised $4.5 million for Democrats in a week. Democrats are looking at having the enthusiasm advantage, better candidates, and more money than Republican incumbents.
The Republican problem is that there isn’t enough dark money to win state races, keep the House, and the Senate. Something is going have to go, and it looks like House Republicans are going to be left to the mercy of the blue wave.
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