On Monday, we reported that a poll found that “the Arizona House special election between Democrat Dr. Hiral Tipirneni and her Republican opponent Debbie Lesko is in a statistical tie, with the Democrat holding a 1 point lead in a district that Trump carried by 21 points.”
And now more Arizona opinion polls are showing a different “Blue Wave Shocker,” this time in the U.S. Senate race to replace retiring Senator Jeff Flake.
U.S. Representative Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ), the presumptive Democratic candidate (because she has no primary opposition), leads all three Republicans (Rep. Martha McSally, conservative former state Sen. Kelli Ward, and anti-immigrant Sheriff Joe Arpaio). This is based on a new survey from ABC15 in Phoenix and OH Predictive Insights which asked potential voters which candidate they would favor if the election were to be held today.
In the poll, Sinema leads Rep. Martha McSally — the Republican front runner and expected primary winner — by 6 points, 48 to 42 percent. She also leads Ward, 50 to 40 percent, and Arpaio, 59 to 33 percent in the shocking poll.
Picking up a Republican seat in Arizona would be a real shocker and would mean the Democrats have a legitimate shot at taking back control of the U.S. Senate.
Sinema’s overall leads are based primarily on her great advantage among independent voters. She leads with independents by more than 60 percent in her match-ups against McSally and Ward and 76 percent when facing Arpaio. Those numbers are astounding, and show the extent to which swing voters are very turned off by Republican leadership in Washington.
Another example of the disgust independent voters feel with Republicans is the extent to which President Trump’s favorability is way underwater among independent voters. Just 25 percent of independents view him favorably while 74 percent of these all-important voters view Trump in an unfavorable light.
“The issue we are consistently seeing in the numbers is that Democrats are unified, Republicans are less united, and the all-important Independent voters are trending anti-Republican/Trump” said Mike Noble, the head of OH Predictive Insights.
“The factors to look for will be if there are enough voters that do not view Trump favorably that still vote the Republican Party and whether or not the winning GOP primary candidate tries to or is able to create a distinct identity.”
As one commentator said, “It’s just one poll, of course, and the election is many months away. But it seems to confirm what many politicos suspected: Democrats have a real chance to win in Arizona, where Donald Trump beat Hillary Clinton by less than 4 points in 2016.”
We’re seeing more of these kinds of polls all over the country, and Arizona turning blue would not be a surprise given their large Hispanic population. This may be the year when the big Blue Wave is seen rolling across the Arizona desert.