It appears that Trump was played as North Korea is not as willing to deal on getting rid of their nuclear program as he believed. Thus, Trump’s dreams of a Nobel Peace Prize look like more exaggeration.
International relations and political science professor Robert E. Kelly tweeted:
Thoughts on Moon’s meeting with Trump tomorrow: 1) It increasingly looks like the Moon administration overstated North Korea’s willingness to deal. Moon will probably get an earful over that.
— Robert E Kelly (@Robert_E_Kelly) May 21, 2018
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2a) Moon likely exaggerated this to tie Trump to a diplomatic track to prevent him from backsliding into last year’s war-threats which scared the daylights out of South Koreans. If Trump were less vain and had allowed his national security staff to vet the NK offer, he might have
— Robert E Kelly (@Robert_E_Kelly) May 21, 2018
2b) learned this. But instead, he accepted the NK summit offer 45 minutes after he was told of it, without even telling the White House staff, and then drank his own kool-aid watching Fox telling him for weeks that he deserved a Nobel. Now comes the hang-over.
— Robert E Kelly (@Robert_E_Kelly) May 21, 2018
3) Flattering Trump into diplomacy is likely also why Moon’s government credited Trump with driving NK to negotiation through maximum pressure and suggested that Trump receive a Nobel peace prize.
— Robert E Kelly (@Robert_E_Kelly) May 21, 2018
4) It is an open secret in Korea that this was just flattering Trump to prevent him from starting a war. No one actually believes it. My students & colleagues laugh at the suggestion. No one thought the western media wd actually start seriously debating it. Trump is loathed here.
— Robert E Kelly (@Robert_E_Kelly) May 21, 2018
5a) The problem, of course, is that none of this Trump-whispering is true: NK is not going to denuclearize; NK was not driven to negotiate by maximum pressure (they chose to negotiate, because they established nuclear deterrence with the US mainland); and Trump does not deserve a
— Robert E Kelly (@Robert_E_Kelly) May 21, 2018
5b) Nobel, because, well, I am pretty sure that threatening national genocide at the United Nations – ‘totally destroy North Korea’ – is a disqualifier.
— Robert E Kelly (@Robert_E_Kelly) May 21, 2018
6a) The great irony, which US conservative media will never admit of course, is that Trump actually drove SK to the table, not NK. Trump scared SKs so much last year, that Moon’s approval rating has shot up into the 80s%, even though he won with just 41% a year ago, and approval
— Robert E Kelly (@Robert_E_Kelly) May 21, 2018
6b) of the summit process is in the 90s%. So if you are a NK hawk, Trump's rhetoric last year made things worse, not better, by scaring up a dovish consensus for Moon to make concessions and keep Trump at bay.
— Robert E Kelly (@Robert_E_Kelly) May 21, 2018
7a) At this point, the best thing to do would be to postpone the summit until greater common ground among the 3 players can be found and let experts on the issues hammer out some consensus. But Moon likely opposes that because any delay could open political space for Bolton, and
— Robert E Kelly (@Robert_E_Kelly) May 21, 2018
Part of the problem is that the Trump administration doesn’t have “time†on their side. Domestically, daily they are dealing with relentless opposition and trivial scandals that warrants they escalate decision making & action.
— DJAnne HP (@DJAnne_HP) May 21, 2018
To summarize, South Korea was playing to Trump’s ego. There was never any intention by the North to immediately denuclearize. Trump’s Nobel Peace Prize is never going to happen because he was conned. There is not going to be a a North Korea deal. They may rush through a meeting. There will be lots of bluster and puffing, but in the end it was all just more empty hype.
Jason is the managing editor. He is also a White House Press Pool and a Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association
