New Polls Give New Evidence That A Blue Wave is Coming

Two recent opinion polls have lifted Democratic spirits as well as their prospects of sweeping to victory in the fall midterm elections.

A new poll from NBC News and the Wall Street Journal says that:

1. “By a whopping 25-point margin, voters say they’re more likely to back a congressional candidate who promises to serve as a check on President Donald Trump.”
2. “And by a similar margin, they say they’re less likely to vote for someone who has supported the president on most issues.”

This is a huge differential.  It proves the old adage that Americans generally prefer a split government, and don’t like it when one political party dominates Washington.  The vast majority of Americans want Democrats to be in charge of Congress to “serve as a check” on the president.

This is supported by the latest tweet from a highly respected political analyst, G. Elliott Morris:

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“The Ipsos/Reuters poll (the one that recently had Republicans up by 6 points) now has Democrats winning the generic ballot by 11 points.“

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1004561747137744897

Over the past few weeks there have been many articles written that the Democrats are losing their edge in the congressional generic ballot.  The new Ipsos/Reuters poll shows that Democrats are actually increasing their edge. This is also supported by the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.

Another finding in the Ipsos/Reuters poll is of equal importance to the generic ballot:  The poll says that the disapproval of Donald Trump is increasing, and his approval is decreasing.  This also reverses a trend that had occurred in recent weeks.

In the new poll, 56 percent of Americans disapprove of Donald Trump while only 38 percent approve.  This negative spread of 18% is the largest it has been for a long time, and shows that the president’s attacks on the FBI and Mueller, and his “spygate” accusations are not working to sway public opinion.

The generic congressional ballot and the sitting president’s approval ratings are two of the most accurate indicators of the outcome of midterm elections. The current numbers are a disaster for Republicans.

In every midterm election in the past the party of the sitting president has lost seats in Congress.  This is expected to happen in 2018 but the big question is how many seats, and will it be enough to give Democrats control of either or both houses of Congress?

Nathan Gonzales, who analyzes expected outcomes for congressional races for Inside Elections said after Tuesday’s primaries that Democrats are very well positioned to make the Blue Wave happen in November.  According to Gonzales:

“Democrats have enough seats in play and enough quality candidates in those seats to win the majority in the House. They have done a good job of turning enthusiasm into a large number of candidates, of turning enthusiasm into fundraising. But now they have to turn that enthusiasm into votes because that is what is going to matter in November.”

Tuesday’s primaries put Democratic candidates in very strong positions to pick up Republican House seats in California, New Jersey and Iowa.  The new polls show that Americans’ attitudes want a change in Washington, and a new party in charge.

Of course the only poll that really matters is the one that happens on election day.  However, if things continue to election day the way they are going for Democrats right now, there will be a big Democratic victory in November.

Leo Vidal

I am a lifelong Democrat with a passion for social justice and progressive issues. I have degrees in writing, economics and law from the University of Iowa.