Any campaign strategist will say that the last thing they want to do is feed their supporters’ complacency with false claims of impending victory, but that is exactly what Trump is doing ahead of the midterms.
Trump continues to insist that a “red wave” is coming with zero data or election results to back up his claims:
Great Republican election results last night. So far we have the team we want. 8 for 9 in Special Elections. Red Wave!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 15, 2018
A top House Republican operative told Axios, “It’s worrisome. The President’s tweeting ‘red wave,’ and they watch Fox News.” These [Trump voters] will say, ‘The same Fake News, Deep State people told me Hillary was going to win and Hillary lost. We’ve won all these elections.'”
A second Republican operative said, “They watch Hannity… and hear that a red wave is coming to save the House. They really believe it’s going to be 2016 all over again.”
Republican voters have been lulled into complacency by Trump and Fox News
One does not have to look at polling data to believe that there is a blue wave coming. Democrats have flipped 47 state-level races since Trump took office. Republicans have flipped 8 Democratic seats, according to a Daily Kos elections analysis. The evidence of blue wave can be found in the election results. Democrats are more motivated to vote. They are showing up and making elections that Republicans should easily win close calls, like the recent House special election in Ohio.
Trump’s red wave culture of denial is hurting Republicans
Speaker of the House, Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) has been warning incumbent House Republicans for months that they need to start campaigning and raising money because a blue wave is coming. The incumbents haven’t been listening. They too have been lulled into a false sense of security by Fox News and Trump’s talk of a red wave. There is no data suggest that Republicans are motivated to vote in November. Trump’s red wave talk isn’t motivating Republicans. It is making them think that they don’t have to show up on Election Day.
There is no red wave
There is no red wave. In previous Republican wave elections. The voter motivation was seen months before the midterm. There is not enough Republican dark money to replicate the spending that the GOP has had to do to survive the special elections in the midterm. Republicans are in big trouble, and Trump’s talk of a red wave is only going to help Democrats in November.