Three new polls released this morning could spell doom for the GOP in November’s elections. These polls continue the rash of bad news that has come out recently for Republican candidates.
Today’s polls deal with two major factors that are known to influence the outcomes of midterm elections:
- The generic congressional ballot, and
- Voters’ opinions of the sitting president.
On the second point, not only are Trump’s approval ratings among the lowest in recorded history, but there are other issues revealed by these polls.
For example, The Politico/Morning Consult poll found that 61 percent of voters think the administration is chaotic, while just 32 percent believe it is running well. This poll was done after the New York Times anonymous op-ed and Bob Woodward’s bombshell new book. Both of these documents describe a president and a White House that are out of control. They also detail the efforts by White House staff to fight against the president’s destructive impulses in order to protect the country.
A new Quinnipiac poll also shows that Americans now generally trust the media much more than the president. Trump has asked his followers to believe what he says instead of the “fake news media” but that appeal no longer is working for most voters.
The poll, released today, shows that 54 percent of voters trust the media compared with just 30 percent for the president. Like his approval rating, this is an all-time low for Donald Trump.
Although Republicans trust Trump more than the media, almost nobody else does, and this is bad news as Trump-supporting GOP candidates head down the home stretch toward the elections that will determine which party is in control of Congress.
With respect to the first factor listed above, the generic congressional ballot, both the Quinnipiac poll and a new NPR/Marist poll give the Democrats very strong double-digit leads.
This is extremely important, because political experts say that Democrats must hold a six percentage point lead in the generic ballot to win back control of the House (due to GOP gerrymandering).
But, if the Democrats win the midterm elections by double digits, then that puts control of the U.S. Senate in play for them also. And that’s what appears to be happening right now.
The NPR Poll found that 50 percent of voters are likely to vote for a Democrat in their congressional district, while just 38 percent say they are likely to vote for a Republican. This corresponds closely with the Quinnipiac Poll that gave Democrats a 14-point edge on the generic House ballot.
In short, the bad news for the GOP just keeps getting worse. As Donald Trump’s approval continues to plunge downward, this trend is likely to continue between now and election day. Republican fears of a Blue Tsunami against them are very well justified.
I am a lifelong Democrat with a passion for social justice and progressive issues. I have degrees in writing, economics and law from the University of Iowa.