A new statewide poll of Texas shows Democratic candidate Rep. Beto O’Rourke and Sen. Ted Cruz tied at 46%-46% in Texas.

According to a poll done by Vox Populi Polling, the Texas Senate race is a tie:

The big difference in this election is that voters like O’Rourke more than they like Cruz:

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Why This Poll Should Scare Republicans

Republicans are already dumping millions of dollars into a rescue mission to save Ted Cruz, but so far, it isn’t working. Outside of one outlier Quinnipiac University poll that showed Cruz up by 9 points, all of the most recent polling has been within the margin of error, which means that this is Senate election in the Republican stronghold of Texas that could go either way. Cruz has seen his support drop by ten points from his 2012 margin of victory, so the problem goes deeper than Rep. O’Rourke being a good candidate.

Sen. Cruz’s approval rating is underwater in Texas. Texans don’t like Ted Cruz, which could be a real problem if the election stays close through election day. Late-deciding voters will cast their ballot for the candidate that they like best. Republicans should be very afraid, because not only is O’Rourke better liked, but he also has a higher ceiling that could help his popularity grow.

Beto O’Rourke has done a great job of defining himself. Republicans aren’t going to be able to save this Senate seat by carpet bombing the Democratic candidate with negative ads. Ted Cruz is going to have win this contest on his own, and if this race is still tied when voters go to the polls, Rep. O’Rourke will have a great chance at pulling off what was once considered an unthinkable victory.

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Jason Easley

Jason is the managing editor. He is also a White House Press Pool and a Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.

Awards and  Professional Memberships

Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association