Democrat Andrew Gillum holds a four-point lead over Republican Ron DeSantis in November’s Florida gubernatorial election, according to a poll released Monday.
A University of North Florida (UNF) survey showed Gillum receiving support from 47 percent of likely voters, compared to 43 percent who back DeSantis. Another 10 percent of likely voters said they are currently undecided.
Since the poll asked the opinions of likely voters it is thought to be more significant and give more accurate results than a poll which surveys all registered voters.
The new results from the UNF survey are consistent with all other polls taken after the August 28th Florida primary. Every poll has shown Gillum with relatively small advantages over his Republican opponent.
The RealClearPolitics average of polls in the Florida governor’s race shows Gillum with a 3.4 percentage point lead based on results from six different opinion surveys.
Despite Gillum’s lead in every poll, The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election analyst, rates the Florida gubernatorial contest a “toss-up.”
On September 14th we reported results from a Rasmussen Poll which showed that the 39 year-old mayor of Tallahassee had a six point lead over his Republican opponent. Since Rasmussen is a right-leaning polling company these results were considered very significant.
It’s possible that Gillum’s lead is more like the six points shown by Rasmussen instead of the 3.5 points shown in the RealClearPolitics average. This would mean the results are outside the polling margin of error and the race should not be classified as a “toss up.”
In an article on August 31, we reported that Gillum had a five percentage point lead at that time.
With the election being just six weeks from tomorrow every new poll is analyzed and scrutinized to try to gain clues about its significance.
DeSantis has been receiving bad publicity over the past several weeks due to his ties to white supremacists and his racist remarks. Since Gillum is black and extremely progressive the race is a study in contrast and has gained a great deal of national attention. DeSantis was heavily supported by Donald Trump and is seen as a surrogate for the president in this race.
The new UNF survey also found that the U.S. Senate contest between Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson and Republican Gov. Rick Scott is tied.
I am a lifelong Democrat with a passion for social justice and progressive issues. I have degrees in writing, economics and law from the University of Iowa.