With growing support from women, Democrats are poised for major gains in midterm, new USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times poll shows.
Democrats are poised to make huge gains this midterm, and it’s thanks to three groups of women voters who have been important for Republicans: suburban residents, married white women and white women without college degrees.
Democrats have grown a stunning 9 points with suburban women, for example.
“(W)omen, who already leaned significantly toward the Democrats, have shifted further in their direction, widening a large gender gap. The poll found women now favor the Democrats by 28 percentage points, 62% to 34%, among likely voters.
Democrats enjoy a 61%-35% edge among suburban women, the poll found — a margin that has grown by 9 points since the summer. Democrats have narrowed the gap with Republicans among married white women, long a mainstay of the GOP, who now favor Republicans by a narrow 51% to 46%.”
Add to that “A similar pattern holds among white women who did not graduate from college. Blue-collar white women gave Trump a crucial margin of support in 2016. A majority continues to support Republicans — by 56% to 39% — but since the summer, Democrats have cut their deficit with that group by a third.”
You might think these are the results of the #BrettBye coalition, but nope. This poll was mostly done before the sexual assault accusations against Judge Brent Kavanaugh were the highlight of the news. It’s Trump; the guy Republicans are tying themselves to right now as they attack women who have reluctantly come forward against Kavanaugh.
“Roughly 3 out of 4 likely voters said they saw their vote this fall as an opportunity to express a view of Trump. For many, that view is negative: Those saying they planned to register opposition outnumbered Trump supporters, 45% to 29%.”
So that spells trouble for the GOP.
Add to that the loss of older people, who normally vote reliably in midterms and vote Republican. Democrats now lead with older people by 51% to 45%.
That’s very disturbing” from a Republican standpoint, said longtime party strategist Mike Murphy, the co-director of USC’s Center for the Political Future. “If Republicans are not doing well with seniors and not doing well with college-educated voters in the suburbs, there’s just no good news” for the party, he said.
Only 24% of likely voters approve of how Trump is handling the Russia investigation. So he is even peeling away some of those hardcore Republicans.
Only 26% approve of Trump’s handling of race relations. Republicans spent 8 years calling Obama the divisive president, the “race card” president, only to elect a real racist and now be known for it.
National polls do not tell the story of what’s going on district by district. So there’s a big caveat with reading national polls. However, in a majority of the races around the country in very red districts we’ve found Democrats creeping up on Republicans and in some cases even winning in special elections.
When we add in the Kavanaugh factor and look at specific Senate polls, we see a trend toward the Pink Wave:
In every Senate poll released this week, women are powering Democrats to leads because of Brett Kavanaugh. If Republicans keep pushing the Kavanaugh nomination, they will face a backlash that will cost them the Senate.
“See if you can spot the trend in this week’s Senate polling:
Sensing a theme in this week’s Senate polls:
FL: Nelson (D) +17 over Scott (R) among women [Quinnipiac]
AZ: Sinema (D) +15 over McSally (R) among women [Marist]
MI: Stabenow (D) +24 over James (R) among women [Mitchell]
WI: Baldwin (D) +27 over Vukmir (R) among women [Marquette]”
The mood is anti-Republican and anti-Trump. Women were fleeing the party before the Kavanaugh debacle. If people turn out to vote, that’s trouble for Republicans.
Democrats need 23 seats to get the House back, while the Senate map favors Republicans because more Republicans are up for reelection in red states. However, there are some Democrats giving Republican senators a run for their money in red states, like Beto O’Rourke in Texas forcing Ted Cruz and the GOP to spend big on a race that should have been a given for Cruz and the Republicans seem to be abandoning some of their doomed candidates.
Republicans seem oddly serene in the face of these horrible polls, which is just more incentive to not only make sure you vote, but make sure your friends and family vote. Leave no stone unturned. This isn’t about partisanship, it’s about decency.
Ms. Jones is the co-founder/ editor-in-chief of PoliticusUSA and a member of the White House press pool.
Sarah hosts Politicus News and co-hosts Politicus Radio. Her analysis has been featured on several national radio, television news programs and talk shows, and print outlets including Stateside with David Shuster, as well as The Washington Post, The Atlantic Wire, CNN, MSNBC, The Week, The Hollywood Reporter, and more.
Sarah is a member of the Society of Professional Journalists.